In college football, each regular-season win is even more important than wins are in the NFL because the College Football Playoff only features four teams, and one bad loss can keep a team from qualifying for consideration. All it takes is one injury at a key position to set a team back, or one or two flukey plays at the end of regulation, to alter a team’s whole trajectory. With that in mind, the sports betting prop for win totals for college football teams is one of the most interesting ones. Take a look at some of the published totals and some of our College Football betting odds for the next season.
NCAA News: 2022 College Football Win Totals
Georgia Bulldogs: 11 ½ (+200 Over / -250 Under)
All it would take is one loss to derail your wager, because this prop is based on the regular season’s 12-game schedule. Yes, the Bulldogs ran the table in a perfect season, the first time Kirby Smart led his team to an unbeaten slate. However, several of the top contributors from last year have gone on to the NFL. Georgia does recruit well, but they don’t have the unbeaten track record that, say, Alabama has. They open with a neutral-site game against Oregon, and they play Florida on a neutral field, and they also visit Mississippi State and Kentucky. The Bulldogs could still run the table, but the value on the over is not worth the risk – and the value on the under doesn’t pay well enough.
Missouri: 5 (+100 Over / -120 Under)
The defense could be significantly better this season, with former coordinator Steve Wilks leaving, replaced by former safeties coach Blake Baker – and with eight returning starters on this side of the ball. Winnable games on the Mizzou schedule include Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt, and New Mexico State at home, as well as Auburn and South Carolina on the road. Because of the non-conference games, it looks like the win-loss total is a game or two low, so I would definitely take the over here.
Alabama: 11.5 (+200 Over / -250 Under)
I’ll say the same thing I did about the Georgia prop at 11 ½ games: there’s not enough value if you take the under, and the value on the over is not worth the risk. In 2022, Alabama visits Arkansas, LSU and Ole Miss – and they also have an intriguing date at Texas in the early going. They host Texas A&M and Auburn. Alabama’s loss at Texas A&M last year derailed their perfect season but did not keep them out of the College Football Playoff. The Crimson Tide have a better shot at a 12-win season than Georgia does, because they have less turnover at the key positions, but all it would take is a blown ACL for Bryce Young for you to kiss your money goodbye.
Arkansas: 6.5 (-170 Over / +150 Under)
This seems low for an Arkansas team that crashed a number of parties last year, but the Razorbacks only have nine starters returning. Of the five offensive starters coming back, four are on the O-line – but the fifth is quarterback K.J. Jefferson, one of the top signal-callers in the nation. The defensive front did lose five starters, which could cause problems. The non-conference schedule starts with a challenge, as Arkansas welcomes Cincinnati in Week 1. Missouri State and Liberty should be manageable, although a trip to BYU will also provide plenty of difficulty. In SEC play, Arkansas should get wins over South Carolina and LSU at home, and trips to Mississippi State, Auburn and Missouri should also lead to wins. A neutral-site game against Texas A&M, whom the Razorbacks beat last year, also looms as an opportunity. I like Arkansas to go over here.
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