Georgia State has only had football for nine seasons now, and they can complete the first eight-win campaign in school history with a win in Saturday’s TaxAct Camellia Bowl. Their opponent is the Ball State Cardinals, who have endured a roller coaster ride all season long. They started the year by beating Western Illinois by ten points, but then they lost three straight (by 74 combined points) before winning three in a row. They finished dropping three of five but ended up with bowl eligibility. Georgia State went just 1-4 to start the season but finished the season by winning six of seven down the stretch, with the only loss coming in Week 10 at Louisiana. The defense stiffened after those first five games; they permitted 38 points per game while going 1-4 but dropped that number to just over 20 the rest of the way.
If you have this Christmas Day game on your college football betting card, read our thoughts on the contest.
NCAAF Preview: TaxAct Camellia Bowl (Saturday, December 25)
Georgia State vs Ball State
When: Saturday, December 25, 2021, 2:30 pm ET
Where: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Georgia State -5.5 / O/U 51 // Georgia State -220 / Ball State +180
Why should you bet on the Panthers?
Georgia State has won the turnover battle six times in their last seven contests, and they have only turned it over 14 times all season, third-best in the Sun Belt Conference. Cornelious Brown IV started the season at quarterback but was benched after two games, having thrown for just 197 yards and a pair of picks. Darren Grainger, a transfer from Furman, went 7-3 after taking the starting job. In the last five games, though, he has only accounted for four touchdowns (three through the air and one on the ground), with a completion percentage just a hair over 50 percent.
The running game has really prospered, picking up 225 yards per game, second to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference and eighth among FBS schools. Jamyest Wiliams and Tucker Gregg combined to pick up over 60 percent of the team’s ground yards, scoring a combined 18 touchdowns. Williams was the top taiback in yards per carry this season (6.75) and fourth among FBS schools. On defense, Ball State had 20 takeaways, including 15 picks, four from linebacker Jaylin Thomas.
Why should you put your money on the Cardinals?
Ball State has not had the most automatic offense this season. They failed to score 20 points in five different games this season (all losses), and they only broke the 30-point barrier twice against FBS foes. Their time of possession for the season is just over 27 minutes per contest, one of the ten lowest totals among FBS programs and the second lowest total for MAC teams. Drew Plitt has been a somewhat effective game manager in terms of avoiding tackles per loss, as Ball State has only allowed 3.75 of those per game. However, Plitt is quite conservative, averaging just 10.2 yards per completion, the sixth lowest average among FBS quarterbacks. His top targets are Yo’Heinz Tyler, Justin Hall and Jayshon Jackson.
In the running game, Justin Hall and Carson Steele share the team lead in touchdowns with six apiece. Steele leads the team with 829 rushing yards on the season. In terms of ball security and penalty discipline, though, Ball State has done well. They are among the top 20 teams in the nation in fewest turnovers (10) and fewest penalty yards per game (41.6). Both of those numbers were second best in the MAC this season. In the red zone, they have only made 38 trips in 12 games, but they have scored on 33 of those 38 drives.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Georgia State has some dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball but particularly on offense, scoring over 35 points in each of their last six wins of the season. I see them blowing by a cautious and conservative Ball State team, which will struggle to keep up, by a score of 34-24.
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