If you look at the rosters of the top teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision of NCAA’s Division I, three stand out from the rest in terms of talent: Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. After that, there is a collection of other teams with elite players — but also with question marks. This includes the likes of Oklahoma, Iowa State, Ohio State, USC, Texas A&M and Notre Dame. There are some other teams sniffing around the mix as well, such as Miami (FL), North Carolina and even Coastal Carolina or Cincinnati.
Let’s look at smart college football betting picks to make the national semifinals as well as some of the sleepers who could sneak in.
NCAA News: Picks to Make the CFP Final 4
Smart Picks: Alabama, Clemson and Georgia
Alabama and Clemson are automatic picks right now, and not just because of pedigree. Clemson has one really challenging game on its 2021 schedule, opening with the Georgia Bulldogs in a rare show of interconference bravery in terms of scheduling matchups out of conference play. After that, the Tigers have a fairly easy skate as they don’t face Miami or North Carolina except in a potential ACC Championship.
Alabama faces Miami in their season opener, but their only scary road dates after that are trips to Texas A&M and to Auburn. Bryce Young has already broken the seven-figure mark in terms of NIL money, and sports betting enthusiasts are as confident as the sponsors are in his potential for the Crimson Tide offense. There are people who say that LSU is back, but they play Alabama on the road, and there are people who say that Texas A&M is finally elite. Again, we’ll see, but until someone knocks Nick Saban’s recruiting machine off the top of the heap, it’s madness to bet against them.
What about Georgia, though? After that Clemson matchup, their toughest SEC game is likely at Auburn, although their annual matchup with Florida down in Jacksonville is always a point of interest. The Bulldogs added quarterback J.T. Daniels, who played the last four games last year, and their defense is supposed to be all-world, at least on paper. The key is that opener against Clemson; even with a loss, if they can run the table and win the SEC, they would get into the playoff. If they get stopped in the SEC Championship by Alabama, though, it would depend on what teams in other conferences do — and how dominant Georgia looks along the way.
What about Oklahoma?
Oklahoma keeps getting into the CFP, and they keep getting their doors blown off in the semifinal. We already had suspicions about the quality of the Big 12 as a conference, and the fact that the Sooners keep winning a league that, with the departures of Oklahoma and Texas, is not as good top to bottom as the American Athletic Conference, has to stop swaying voters at some point. The Sooners will always have an elite offense, and we keep hearing about improvements on defense, but those improvements did not pan out in 2020. Will they in 2021?
Ohio State, Miami and Cincinnati
The Buckeyes scored 41 points per game in 2020 with Justin Fields at quarterback. Now, it’s C.J. Stroud running the offense, at least for now. Redshirt freshman Jack Miller is part of the conversation, as is Quinn Ewers, who opted out of his senior season at Southlake Carroll (TX) High School to head to Ohio State earlier. If he enrolls in the fall, that would change matters considerably. However, none of these quarterbacks have thrown a pass in a college game.
Miami should have quarterback D’Eriq King back, although his recovery from an ACL tear in the Cheez-It Bowl is still progressing. Freshman Tyler Van Dyke would be the next man up, and the team has all of its best wide receivers back, including Mike Harley, Mark Pope and Dee Wiggins — along with Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo. It’s hard to see this team getting past Clemson in the ACC Championship, but these are sleepers for a reason, and if the Hurricanes start off the season, say, 7-0, the whispers will build.
What about Cincinnati? They were the best Group of Five team and now play Indiana and Notre Dame this season. If they can get by those two teams (and Notre Dame has an otherwise solid season) and run the table in the AAC, it would be hard to put, say, a two-loss Ohio State team into the playoff instead of them. The defense is ironclad, and Desmond Ridder returns as one of the most intriguing quarterbacks in the nation.
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