Saturday’s SEC Championship had a lot more drama building before this past weekend, when Florida lost to unranked LSU after already having clinched the SEC East title. The only other loss the Gators had suffered was against Texas A&M, as Florida beat all of their SEC East rivals. Because the College Football Playoff committee did not want to have to elevate Cincinnati, though, they left the Gators above the unbeaten Bearcats in their standings. With that loss, though, Florida would have a difficult time getting into the College Football Playoff even with a win over Alabama, and if the Tide were somehow to lose this game, that could put Texas A&M in and both Alabama and Florida out, which would be yet another link in the chain of nonsense that the CFP has given us this year. Alabama comes in as 17-point favorites, but can they win — and cover?
Don’t miss our College Football betting prediction.
NCAAF: SEC Championship – Florida Vs Alabama
- When: Saturday, December 19, 2020, 8:00 pm ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- TV: CBS
- Radio: ESPN Radio
- Live Stream: ESPN+
- NCAAF Odds: Alabama -17 / O/U 74
Why should you bet on the Gators?
Florida just lost at home to LSU as 23 ½-point favorites, so it is possible for big SEC underdogs to pull off the surprise, now and then. Of course, it is extremely rare that Alabama is the victim of one of those surprises, thanks to their talent and coaching schemes. Florida suffered an embarrassment last weekend, but Kyle Trask has still put up terrific numbers this season, with 3,717 passing yards for 40 touchdowns with just five picks. He has completed over 70 percent of his passes, with Trevon Grimes, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney his top targets. The running game is not as much of a factor for Florida as it is for Alabama, but Dameon Pierce still leads the team with 441 yards and three scores.
The defense for the Gators has been fairly forgiving, permitting 26.3 points per contest. Ventrell Miller is the team’s leading tackler, with 80, and Brenton Cox Jr leads the defense with four sacks. In their last five games as an underdog, Florida has covered four times, but they have not covered once in their last four games. It will be interesting to see how the Gators respond after getting taken to the woodshed by LSU last week.
Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?
Mac Jones has been just the latest in a string of top-notch quarterbacks coming out of Alabama. He has thrown for 3,321 yards in ten games, with 27 touchdowns against just three picks, completing over 76 percent of his passes. Over his last nine games, he has thrown three touchdown passes. His top targets have been DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and John Metchie III. Tailback Najee Harris has provided balance for the offense, running for 1,084 yards and 22 scores.
The Tide defense has been stout as well, permitting just 16.8 points and 340.1 yards per contest. Christian Barmore leads a ferocious pass rush with six sacks, and Christian Harris is the team’s leading tackler with 65. Alabama has covered the spread in seven straight overall, and in five of their last six meetings with Florida. The Gators come in with a high-octane offense, but their defense has been questionable. If the Gators can move the ball against Alabama, they have a shot at covering, but it is hard to see Florida’s defense matching what the Tide can do.
Final Score and Prediction
It has been fun watching Kyle Trask put up huge numbers for Florida this season, and it was also gratifying to see the Gators set fire to the notion that Georgia is an elite team in the SEC. However, what we are left with is the prospect of another yawnfest in the SEC title game, as Alabama looks likely to come in and impose their will on Florida. I see the Gators coming in with their heads down a bit, and I predict a final score of Alabama 44, Florida 23.
