Week One of the 2021 college football season is upon us, which means a full slate of sports betting matchups for you to take advantage of. We have already written previews about a number of games coming up this weekend, but there are some instances where a straight up wager on the moneyline can make more sense than the point spread. The value can be greater if you’re looking at an upset that you think your underdog can win.
Let’s look at some college football matchups that make sense under this betting scenario.
NCAA News: College Football SU Picks for Week 1
Saturday, September 4
Oregon State (+7) at Purdue (7:00 pm ET, FS1)
The Purdue defense has been porous in recent seasons. Oregon State hasn’t risen to the top of the Pac-12 yet, but they are no longer a doormat under Jonathan Smith. Their offense can put up some big numbers, and they have Sam Noyer, a Colorado transfer, at quarterback. Their O-line returns all five starters, and they have depth at running back and wide receiver. Purdue does have some offensive firepower, as David Bell is one of the top wideouts in the nation. However, that O-line does not provide a lot of protection — and they don’t open up many holes, as their running game showed in 2020. Oregon State is 11-3 in their last 14 games as a road underdog, with eight straight covers. I like the Beavers to cover here — and I also like them to sneak away with a win; currently the moneyline is +200, so that gives you some value. Oregon State to win straight up.
Temple (+14.5) at Rutgers (Time and Broadcast TBA)
*Game moved from Thursday to Saturday due to Hurricane Ida
Rutgers posted a 3-6 record in 2020, which was actually an improvement as Greg Schiano came back to revive the Scarlet Knights’ program once again. Temple went 1-6 in 2020 and had many players dealing with COVID-19 during the season. Rutgers has a steady quarterback in Noah Vedral, but he can’t really do much damage down the field; the Scarlet Knights only had 20 passes of at least 20 yards over nine games in 2020. Tailback Isaih Pacheco and wideout Bo Melton have talent, but this isn’t a high-flying offense. Temple has D’Wan Mathis, a Georgia transfer, at quarterback, but the other skill positions are a little scant. Rutgers should win this game outright — but don’t give Temple this huge spread. Rutgers to win straight up.
Baylor (-14) at Texas State (7:00 pm ET, ESPN+)
Texas State posted a 2-10 record in 2020. However, six of those losses were by no more than ten points, and three of those setbacks came against Louisiana (currently ranked #23 in the nation), Boston College and SMU. Against the spread, Texas State was 7-5, and they were 4-2 against the line at home. The Bobcats return 17 starters, including quarterback Brady McBride, their top wide receiver, their top three tailbacks and four O-linemen. Baylor has a new starting quarterback in Gerry Bohanon and a new offensive system. Their O-line was far from impressive in 2020. I’m definitely taking Texas State with those two touchdowns — and I’m also putting down a smaller amount on the Bobcats to win outright. It’s a road game, Baylor has a bit of an entitlement culture at work, and the Bobcats are hungry. Texas State to win straight up.
Sunday, September 5
#9 Notre Dame (-7.5) at Florida State (7:30 pm ET, ABC)
Notre Dame has Jack Coan coming in to take over the offense after the departure of Ian Book to the NFL. We saw some of their flaws against Clemson last season, but those flaws should not manifest much against a rebuilding Florida State team. The Seminoles have a collection of talent out of the transfer portal, but that’s a lot of moving parts to put together against a physical team like Notre Dame. Coan is more of a possession quarterback than a deep threat, but the Fighting Irish have a ton of talent at tight end and tailback. Florida State is banking on the revival of McKenzie Milton, the UCF phenom who hasn’t played in two seasons due to injuries. Notre Dame to win straight up.
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