The fifth week of the 2021 college football season has the most exciting action of any week so far this season. Four games pit top-25 teams against one another, with two of those games coming out of the SEC, one from the Big 12 and the last bringing major playoff implications. Arkansas visits Georgia on the momentum of a home win over Texas and a neutral-site win over Texas A&M. Seventh-ranked Cincinnati heads to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish under the watchful eye of Touchdown Jesus, with both teams looking to burnish their case for inclusion in the national semifinal.
Let’s look at your best college football betting opportunities as the calendar flips to October.
NCAA News: Expert Predictions for College Football, Week 5
#8 Arkansas (+18) at #2 Georgia (O/U 48.5)
At the start of the season, Texas A&M was viewed as the third-best program in the SEC, after Alabama and Georgia. That came to an end this past weekend, when Arkansas took down the Aggies at AT&T Stadium in front of a raucous crowd that was roughly even in its split favoring the Razorbacks and the Aggies. The next test is a cross-division matchup at Sanford Stadium, against a Georgia team that has permitted 23 points in four wins. However, Arkansas’ defense is fairly stout itself, as it has permitted only 14.5 points per game — and just ten points per game in their last two wins. Both teams hold their opposition under 150 passing yards, and Georgia only permitted 66 yards on the ground per game in September.
The Georgia offense has blown out the likes of Vanderbilt and South Carolina, but they only managed a field goal against Clemson, as the team’s touchdown came on a pick-six. Quarterback J.T. Daniels has not played well against top 25 opposition since his days at USC. In those games, he has eight touchdown passes against six picks, and three of those touchdowns came against Missouri, as the Tigers briefly held the #25 slot in the rankings last season. I like Arkansas to cover, but a wager I like even more is to take the under, as this should be a grindingly slow game where teams struggle to put up points.
#7 Cincinnati (-2.5) at Notre Dame
This is a line that should start to shift almost immediately, after the Fighting Irish obliterated Wisconsin at Soldier Field in Week 4, rolling to a 41-13 win. Notre Dame had three tough games to begin the season and then took a Big Ten West contender to the woodshed. Against Cincinnati, Notre Dame’s defense will still be the dominant unit. Cincinnati is likely to give quarterback Desmond Ridder yet another new wrinkle to the offense, but that may not matter against the Irish D. Notre Dame held both of its last two opponents, both Big Ten squads, to 13 points, and Kyle Hamilton is the hub of the defense. He has three picks, two passes defensed and 24 tackles on the season, second on the squad. He should interrupt passing lates and sere as a shadow for Ridder, in case he decides to run the ball.
Cincinnati comes into this game with two weeks to prepare, having taken their bye week after winning, 38-24, at Indiana. The game was closer than that final score indicated, as Indiana actually led for much of the game, before the Bearcats pulled away in the second half. Beating Indiana was impressive, but this is Cincinnati’s shot against a CFP blue-blood. The fact that this line opened with Cincinnati as the favorite could reflect some anxiety about Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan’s injury, but coach Brian Kelly indicated that the injury is not serious, and even with Coan out, Drew Pyne stepped up and led the offense to a win in his absence. Coan is expected to come back and start at home against the Bearcats. Notre Dame to cover.
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