One factor that separates college football from pro football, from a competitiveness and a sports betting perspective, is the overall lack of parity. In the NFL this season, of the 32 franchises, there are 8 or 9 teams that have a legitimate shot to win Super Bowl LVI. In college football, there are 130 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, but access to the College Football Playoff is essentially limited to the Power 5 conferences, who have 64 combined schools (at least for now), and there are really only six or eight schools seen as likely qualifiers for the four playoff slots. This means that betting involves finding margins beyond the fortunes of teams like Alabama, Clemson and Georgia, instead looking to other teams and conferences for wagering margins.
Here are five predictions for the season that could help you grow your college football betting.
NCAA News: 5 Fearless Predictions for the College Football Season
Oregon knocks off Ohio State in Week 2
The Oregon Ducks are the only team in the Pac-12 that has a winning percentage higher than 70 over the last three seasons combined. The roster is stacked, with defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux as just the highest rated player on a terrific roster. Tailback C.J. Verdell and wide receivers Jaylon Redd and Johnny Johnson III are back. Anthony Brown, a graduate transfer, and Ty Thompson, a five-star recruit and a true freshman, will compete for the quarterback position. The Ducks rely heavily on RPO on their offense, and the Ducks put up almost 40 points per game in their first four contests. That dropped below 22 for the last three games as the offense stagnated, but the O-line returns four starters and the skill positions have unusual depth.
Why can the Ducks beat Ohio State? The Buckeyes are working in a new quarterback of their own, and their defense was shaky at times in clutch games. Ohio State is still the favorite to win the Big Ten, but that status overlooks the difficulty in installing a new quarterback as well as some of the other up and coming teams in the conference. I like the Ducks to come in and at least cover, if not win outright.
Iowa State will win the Big 12
The Oklahoma Sooners have dominated the Big 12 in recent years, but their decision, along with Texas, to leave the Big 12 for the SEC — and put the future of the Big 12 itself in doubt — will put an even larger target on the Sooners’ backs this season. Iowa State finished #9 in the overall rankings last season, and just about all the offense is back. Quarterback Brock Purdy, wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson, tailback Breece Hall and tight end Charlie Kolar all return, and Tarique Milton is healthy again, giving Purdy another option in the passing game.
The Cyclones’ defense is elite in terms of depth, talent and experience, with three solid cornerbacks (Tayvonn Kyle, Datrone Young and Anthony Johnson) and edge rusher Will McDonald (10 ½ sacks). Howard Brown joins the D-line as a true freshman, and Jaquan Amos transfers in to join a stacked secondary.
Kansas State will return to a bowl game
In 2020, the Wildcats started 4-1, including an upset victory over Oklahoma on September 26. The team had some injuries (and some defensive nightmares) that saw the team finish 4-6. One of those injuries happened to quarterback Skylar Thompson, and he will return — and help the team average more than the 26.6 points they put up per game in 2020. The whole starting O-line is back, and so K-State should hit six wins.
Tennessee will have a losing record
The quarterback competition is happening a bit late in the game, as Joe Milton and Hendon Hooker have come out of the transfer portal to compete with Harrison Bailey. Their skill positions are below average in the SEC, and on defense, they lost enough players in the off-season to make the transition in 2021 under new head coach Josh Heupel a tough one.
Houston will also have a losing record
Dana Holgorsen left West Virginia for Houston two seasons ago but has gone just 7-13 while there — and he lost quarterback D’Eriq King via transfer to Miami. Houston does not have to play UCF or Cincinnati this season, but the biggest problem for the Cougars was turnovers, as they coughed the ball up 16 times a year ago — and that was only in eight games due to numerous cancellations from COVID-19. The Cougars also generated only three plays of at least 40 yards, a number that needs to increase.
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