We’ve seen a lot of sports betting underdogs deliver surprises during the college football bowl season, most recently when Coastal Carolina went all the way to Hawai’i and beat San Jose State despite entering as 17-point underdogs. We thought the Chanticleers might cover, but seeing them win was a surprise to us. On Thursday morning, the Boston College Eagles (6-6) take on the AAC champion SMU Mustangs (11-2), entering as 10-point underdogs in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl at Fenway Park, the home of the Boston Red Sox. BC will have the home field advantage, though, and it’s hard to predict how the Mustangs will respond after the CFP committee decided to rank an unbeaten Liberty team ahead of them despite the Flames not playing any challenging opposition. Some teams in that position come out to send a message, while others tend to play without a lot of interest and lose to the underdog. Given that kickoff is at 11:00 am local time, it could take a while for energy to appear as well. Read on to get our NCAAF Fenway Bowl betting prediction for this matchup between Boston College vs SMU.
2023 College Football Fenway Bowl Odds: Boston College vs SMU
When: Thursday, December 28, 2023, 11:00 am ET
Where: Fenway Park, Boston
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: ESPN+
NCAAF Odds: SMU -11 / O/U 50.5 // SMU -475 / Boston College +350
Why should you bet on the Boston College Eagles?
The Eagles enter the Fenway Bowl on a three-game skid. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is a dual threat, though, throwing for 2,146 yards with 15 touchdown passes and running for 957 yards and 11 scores. He did throw 13 interceptions, though, so he is prone to turn the ball over. As a unit the offense scored 25.0 points per game.
On defense, the Eagles permitted 29.5 points per game, 95h in the nation. They had 16 takeaways but only managed a dozen sacks. Linebacker Vinny DePalma led the team with 87 total tackles (39 solo), and he also had a fumble recovery and 0.5 sacks. A dozen players entered the transfer portal for BC, but that will give some reserves a chance to contribute after a few weeks of bowl preparation.
Bet on Boston College to Win Today
| 2023 Fenway Bowl Odds | SPREAD | MONEYLINE | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston College Eagles | +11 | +350 | U 50.5 |
| SMU Mustangs | -11 | -475 | O 50.5 |
Why should you put your money on the SMU Mustangs?
SMU went to Tulane and delivered an upset in the AAC Championship in their last action. Backup quarterback Kevin Jennings fumbled the ball on the first play from scrimmage, giving Tulane an easy touchdown. After that, though, Jennings looked nothing like a backup, going 19 of 33 for 203 yards and a touchdown. He did throw two interceptions, forcing balls into tight windows, but after the Mustangs built a lead, the Mustangs got more run-heavy on offense and relied on their defense to shut down a high-octane Tulane offense. Jennings will play again in the Fenway Bowl as starting quarterback Preston Stone saw his season come to an end in the regular-season finale against Navy, breaking his leg on a scramble.
The SMU defense has improved significantly over the course of the season after allowing Oklahoma and TCU to pull away in wins during non-conference play. For the year, the defense has permitted 17.4 points per game, grabbing 16 takeaways and posting 47 total sacks. Linebacker Kobe Wilson has 74 total tackles (44 solo), four interceptions, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery. The team did lose some defensive players to the transfer portal but still have the scheme to keep Boston College honest on offense.
Bet on SMU to Win Today
Boston College vs SMU Final Score and Prediction for the Fenway Bowl
SMU’s quarterback for this game won a state football title at Dallas (TX) South Oak Cliff High School and has looked confident in Stone’s place. He bounced back from that early gaffe against Tulane and led his team to a huge win in a road game. The defense should have Jennings’ back again, and I think the Mustangs come out primed to show the CFP committee the error of their ways. I predict a final score of SMU 27, BC 13.
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Boston College vs SMU Fenway Bowl
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