2023 Fresno State Football Betting Guide for the Season

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Fresno State’s 2022 season looked like a potential dumpster fire when they went to Connecticut and lost, 19-14, coming out of their bye week. They had opened with a rout of Cal Poly, but then they had lost by three to Oregon State and gotten routed at USC. They followed up the loss to Connecticut with a poor showing at Boise State. After that, though, the Bulldogs would not lose. They avenged that loss to Boise State by taking the Broncos down in the Mountain West Conference title game, and then they demolished Washington State, 29-6, in the Jimmy Kimmel L.A. Bowl.

The Bulldogs lost several key players to the NFL, so let’s see what college football betting perspective, breaking down the different phases of the game.

2023 Fresno State Bulldogs College Football Betting Guide for the Season

Bulldogs Moving On

Quarterback Jake Haener went to the New Orleans Saints in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. In 32 career games (29 starts) with Fresno State, he posted a record of 21-8. He threw for 2,896 yards, 20 touchdowns and three interceptions in 2022, completing 72 percent of his passes. In 2021, he had thrown for 4,096 yards and posted a 33:9 TD:INT ratio, but the Bulldogs had more balance on offense in 2022 – and Haener struggled in those four losses last year.

The Bulldogs also saw top tailback Joshua Mims leave after running the ball 261 times for 1,370 yards and 18 scores last year. Wide receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper joined the Dallas Cowboys after a season in which he caught 84 balls for 1,093 yards. Wide receivers Nikko Remigio (74 catches, 852 yards, 6 TD) and Zane Pope (50 catches, 653 yards, 4 TD) have also moved on.

Considering the 2023 Win Total

On most books, the Bulldogs have a win total of 8 ½ games for 2023, with the “under” slightly favored. Obviously, this team will be significantly different from the 2022 edition that won 10 games – just nine in the regular season (which the win total prop covers), but it’s important to remember that those skill players had a tough time in that four-game skid. With that in mind, there are some contributors who can help the Bulldogs hit the over.

Tailback Malik Sherrod returns after a 2022 season in which he carried the ball 80 times for 428 yards and a pair of scores. This year, he will be the featured back. At quarterback, Jack Jacobs, who stands 6’6”, was an MVP in the Angelus League in his last year of high school, as he threw 33 touchdown passes against just seven picks. He also carried the ball 120 times for 297 yards and four touchdowns. Jacobs will face competition from Logan Fife and Joshua Wood for the starting job.

Obviously, there are also reasons to doubt the Bulldogs hitting this win total. The defense lost their best pass rusher, David Perales, to the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers have added him after a season in which Perales posted 11 ½ sacks and 31 solo tackles. It’s not clear who will fill those shoes. The fact that the Bulldogs lost three key receivers may motivate opposing defensive coordinators to load the box and dare Jacobs, or whoever wins the starting job, to beat them down the field.

At this point, it makes sense to take the Bulldogs to finish under that win total. The dropoff in talent has not been matched by the arrival of new players through the transfer portal or through the incoming recruiting class, and while the Bulldogs have stability and quality in their coaching staff, these are a lot of new players to work in and expect the same level of quality. A season with six or seven wins is a more likely outcome for Fresno State this year.

2023 Fresno State Seminoles Football Schedule

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