How to Bet the 2019 College Football National Championship

At this writing, 56 percent of the bets that have been placed on Monday’s college football championship game between Alabama and Clemson have been placed on the Crimson Tide — and those bets account for two-thirds of the money that has been wagered on the game. However, the initial line (Alabama -6.5) has slid down to five points. As you consider your College Football National Championship betting strategy for this matchup, let’s take a look at recent betting history in the national championship as well as suggestions for you to consider.

How to Bet the 2019 College Football Championship Game

Under the current College Football Playoff format, we have had four national championship games. Let’s take a look at each of those point spreads and how each turned out: Year    Line                 Score                                      Fav ATS                     Fav SU

• Year: 17/18 / Line: Alabama -3.5 / Score: Alabama 26, Georgia 23 / Fav ATS: L / Fav SU: W
• Year: 16/17 / Line: Alabama -6.5 / Score: Clemson 35, Alabama 26/ Fav ATS: L / Fav SU: L
• Year: 15/16 / Line: Alabama -6 / Score: Alabama 26, Clemson 40 / Fav ATS: L / Fav SU: W
• Year: 14/15 / Line: Oregon -5.5 / Score: Ohio State 42, Oregon 20 / Fav ATS: L / Fav SU: L

So we see that in the College Football Playoff era, no favorite has covered the spread. However, the favorite has won straight up twice. Last year, Alabama missed covering by a half-point, and three years ago, Alabama missed covering by a point. In the BCS era of college football championship games, the spread was much more reliable, holding 9 of 16 times and in six of the last seven games.

What Happened Last Year?

When Alabama and Clemson met in the national semifinal last year, Alabama won by a score of 24-6, despite entering the game as just a three-point favorite. Clemson’s quarterback in that game was Kelly Bryant, who had taken over from Deshaun Watson after the 2016-17 season. Bryant was more of a running quarterback who had trouble completing passes down the field, an issue that led to his replacement by freshman Trevor Lawrence in the middle of the 2018 regular season. Alabama was able to shut down Clemson’s running game and force Bryant to beat them through the air, and he couldn’t. The short Clemson offensive drives wore down the Clemson defense, and Alabama was able to take advantage as the game wore on. In a game that goes to overtime, a six-point win is likely as one team scores a touchdown and the opponent is forced to go for a score in an attempt to tie. In the case of a five-point spread, it is better to go with the team you think will win if you think the game might go to overtime. But what if you think the game will come down to its final drive? Then a five-point spread is tough to cover unless the favorite is down by just one point or the game is tied. If the favorite is down by two and scores a touchdown, they are unlikely to go for two, as a five- and six-point lead has no strategic difference, so you would end up with a push. However, if the favorite is down by any other one-score margin and scores to win late, they would still fail to cover. If the line drops to four or even 4 ½ points, I would consider taking Alabama. However, I see this game coming down to the last drive, and with those metrics in mind, it makes sense to take Clemson to cover. Obviously, if Clemson wins on the last drive, this discussion becomes moot.

Now, what about that over/under total?

Right now, it sits at 59 ½ points. Given the defenses involved, will this game turn into a track meet? Last year, in the national semifinal, Alabama only put up 24 points — but with Hurts at the helm. Alabama limited the Tigers to six points, for a game total of 30 points. Clemson’s offense is much more dangerous than it was last year with Trevor Lawrence at the helm, and despite these defenses, I’m leaning toward seeing this game go over as defense fades into the background, as it did two years ago.