The Cy-Hawk Trophy is up for grabs on Saturday, as Iowa and Iowa State renew a rivalry that dates all the way back to 1894. Iowa has won 45 of the first 67 meetings and won the most recent one in 2019, prevailing 18-17. Iowa has also won five meetings in a row. This time around, Iowa State was largely seen as the better of the two teams coming into 2021, but they opened as a home underdog after Week One. Iowa ran roughshod over Indiana in their season opener, while Iowa State needed some late heroics to stave off FCS program Northern Iowa last week.
Let’s take a look at this terrific rivalry game as you plan out your college football betting for the weekend.
NCAAF Preview: Iowa at Iowa State
When: Saturday, September 11, 2021, 4:30 pm ET
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
TV: ABC
Radio: Hawkeye Radio Network / Cyclone Radio Network
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Iowa -4.5 / O/U 45
Why should you bet on the Hawkeyes?
When Indiana came to town last week, a lot of sports betting prognosticators (including me) thought that the Hoosiers and Michael Penix Jr would pick up right where they left off last season, pushing the envelope on offense and doing just enough on defense to grab a cover, if not win outright. However, that’s not what happened. Iowa’s defense came out fired up, grabbed three interceptions and locked down the Hoosiers’ running game. On offense, Tyler Goodson ran for a huge touchdown in the early moments, and the Hawkeyes never looked back.
In stark contrast, Iowa State could not sustain drives, stalling time and time again on third downs and scoring just one field goal in the second half. The defense posted a +2 turnover margin, but that failure to turn possessions into points against an FCS program could be a sign of Week One yips — and it could be a sign that the Cyclones are in trouble. To me, it seems like typical Week One willies, but Iowa looks miles ahead of the Cyclones right now.
Why should you put your money on the Cyclones?
In 2020, Iowa State fell to Louisiana in Week One and ended up rolling the rest of the way. Quarterback Brock Purdy was 21 of 26 on the day, and the Cyclones did not turn the ball over. The defense was able to lock down Northern Iowa after an early drive for a touchdown. If the offense can get out of its own way this week and actually convert on third down, then the Cyclones should be able to hang with Iowa, if not win outright.
On the Iowa side of the ledger, quarterback Spencer Petras was only 13 of 27 for 145 yards in Week One. An area of struggle for the Hawkeye passing game continues to be plays down the field, as Iowa simply doesn’t find them. That’s why they rely so heavily on their ground game and winning the battles in the trenches. This is one of the less competitive in-state rivalries in college football, rendered somewhat more interesting by the fact that Iowa State actually has a decent team this year; having both in the top ten makes this a must-watch.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Iowa has won five in a row and six of their last seven in this rivalry. Six of those games have been defensive struggles, with the seventh turning into an odd scoring frenzy in 2017. Both teams will struggle to move the ball, so while I don’t see this turning into an instant classic like Georgia-Clemson in terms of defensive intensity, this will not feature a ton of points. I like Iowa to prevail at home, 21-16.
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