Kentucky at Georgia Week 12 NCAAF Odds & Expert Prediction

Those who were expecting Georgia to fold at some point saw it happen in dramatic form last Saturday, as the Bulldogs headed to Auburn and took a 40-17 dismantling by the Tigers. Georgia only fell to #7 in the CFP rankings, but they were exposed badly on both sides of the ball, as Auburn combined a bruising defense with a physical offense to take the game. Now they return home to face a Kentucky team that sits at 7-3 and just routed Vanderbilt on the road, 44-21. Georgia struggled against Kentucky last year, winning 27-24 on the road. Will Georgia use this game to take Kentucky to the woodshed and make a statement? After all, if Georgia wins out and wins the SEC Championship game, they could still go to the College Football Playoff. Or will losing to Auburn have them in the doldrums, and will Kentucky take advantage in the NCAAF odds?

Kentucky at Georgia Week 12 NCAAF Odds & Expert Prediction

Respond.#ATD / #KeepChopping pic.twitter.com/LzugkXOorX

— Georgia Football (@FootballUGA) November 15, 2017

When: Saturday, November 18, 2017, 3:30pm ET Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA TV: CBS Radio: UK Sports Network / Georgia Bulldog Sports Network from IMG Live Stream: CBSSports.com NCAAF Odds: Georgia (-21.5)

Weather Forecast

• Cloudy: 19^°C/67^°
• Humidity: 58%
• Precipitation: 15%
• Wind: 11 mph SW
• Cloud Cover: 56%
• Type of Stadium: Open

Why should you bet on the Bulldogs?

Georgia impressed national voters with their one-point win at Notre Dame, but they had not really been tested again until they faced Auburn last week. Georgia opened the scoring with a Nick Chubb score, but they would not put another point on the board until the waning moments of the third period. The Georgia defense, which had played physically tough all year, permitted 488 yards of total offense, including 237 on the ground, and permitting three touchdown passes. The Bulldogs had done well in coverage, pass rush and stopping the run — they’re still in the top ten nationally in total yards, rushing yards and passing yards permitted per game. But that unit simply failed against Auburn. I look to them to make adjustments against Kentucky. The Georgia offense struggled all day too, as quarterback Jake From went just 13 for 28 for 184 yards. He did throw a touchdown, but it came late in garbage time. Nick Chubb did have that early touchdown, but he had only 27 total yards on the day, on 11 carries. If Georgia is demoralized by this and doesn’t with the line of scrimmage battle against Kentucky this weekend, this game could make the SEC East interesting — and doom the SEC Championship game to being another Alabama rout.

Why should you put your money on the Wildcats?

Kentucky has been very inconsistent this year in their losses. They had winnable games against Florida and Ole Miss at home and lost both of them. They did take a 45-7 hide tanning from Mississippi State on the road, but State has played well at home, routing LSU and pushing Alabama to the brink. The Wildcats did take care of business against Vanderbilt, rolling up 427 yards of total offense and snatching four interceptions. That Wildcat defense is a major strength — against Vanderbilt, they limited the Commodore offense to 60 rushing yards on 20 attempts in addition to those four picks. The Kentucky offense features tremendous balance. Against Vanderbilt, quarterback Stephen Johnson went 13 for 17 for 195 yards, and tailback Ben Snell Jr. ran for 116 yards on 17 carries, finding the end zone three times. Johnson had no interceptions and has just four on the season, passing for 10 and running for three more. If you like the Wildcats to cover here, you see them grinding the clock with some long drives and frustrating the Georgia rushing attack (they rank #20 in the nation in rushing yards permitted per game, with 121.9).

Latest NCAAF Odds Trends

 

• Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games
• Kentucky is 7-3 SU in the last 10 games
• The total went OVER in 4 of Kentucky’s last 5 games
• Georgia is 2-5 ATS in the last 7 games at home
• Georgia is 10-1 SU in the last 11 games
• The total went OVER in 4 of Georgia’s last 5 games

 

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

I’ve been one of those people who have been waiting for Georgia to fold in a key test. Now that it’s happened, I do see them making adjustments and taking out some frustration on Kentucky. However, this line is not realistic given how well Kentucky has played this year. I predict a final score of Georgia 34, Kentucky 16 — with the Wildcats covering.