Yes, Kentucky comes into this bowl game with a 4-6 record, but they did not have any non-conference games this season, and those three cupcakes would likely have gotten them the six wins you normally need to qualify for a bowl. They face a NC State team that posted an 8-3 record and was the only team in the nation to beat Liberty this year. The Wolfpack roll in on a four-game winning streak, making its sixth bowl game under Dave Deren. The SEC team has won five of the last six Gator Bowls, with the exception coming with a Georgia Tech win over Kentucky in 2016. Which team will emerge the victor on Saturday?
Take a look at our thoughts on the game as you consider your college football betting choices.
NCAAF: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (January 2)
Kentucky vs North Carolina State
When: Saturday, January 2, 2021, 12:00 pm ET
Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Radio
Live Stream: ESPN+
NCAAF Odds: Kentucky -2.5 / O/U 50.5
Why should you bet on the Wildcats?
NC State has struggled to run the ball ever since picking up 270 yards against Wake Forest in the opener. The Kentucky front seven is a bit soft, and a team that is committed to the running game can wear it down, but the Wolfpack like to throw the ball, and Kentucky can get turnovers. They have been good at takeaways, picking off six Mississippi State passes, as well as three against Tennessee. They only have two picks in the last four games, but they recovered five fumbles in that same stretch. The Wolfpack have thrown a dozen interceptions this season, so look for turnovers to be a factor.
On offense, Kentucky has quarterback Terry Wilson, who knows how to drive the bus. Kentucky’s O-line has the size and strength to control the rhythm of the game, and the tailbacks have enough speed and acceleration to make NC State pay for gambling. If you like Kentucky, you see a team that has shown a high ceiling in some of their blowout wins coming out with guns blazing and jumping out to an early lead.
Why should you put your money on the Wolfpack?
A problem for Kentucky is that they are not particularly strong in one area. The offense is adequate, but it only really caught fire against some of the worst defenses in the SEC, such as South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. NC State lost three times this season, all against high-octane offenses — North Carolina, Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech, who ran the ball all day against them. However, against teams that did not have one especially potent unit, the Wolfpack were able to win.
The Wolfpack defense does a good job at disrupting opposing offenses. Their linebackers push into the backfield, and defensive tackle Asim McNeill can clog the middle, letting everything flow around him for the defense. On offense, expect quarterback Bailey Hockman to throw a pick here or there, but also expect him to air it out, as he has two consecutive 300-yard games. If he is throwing well, the Wolfpack will be hard to stop, and Kentucky doesn’t have the offense to contend with a track meet.
Final Score and Prediction
Kentucky is a decent football team, but NC State is just enough better to pull off this win, so you can make some hay off the value, as the point spread shows the four-win Wildcats as the favorite. I predict a final score of NC State 24, Kentucky 20.
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