If you can figure out ways to leverage underdog wagers, you can make money more quickly in your sports betting because of the additional value that underdogs offer. Of course, you’re elevating your risk (hence the added value) but if you can find some imbalances in your lines, then you can take advantage and end up having to wager on fewer games to hit your revenue targets.
Let’s take a look at four tips you can consider in your college football wagering this fall.
NCAA News: 4 Ways to Make Money Betting on College Football Underdogs
Remember that home field advantage is overhyped
Most oddsmakers give the home team three points in just about any matchups. Recreational sports bettors tend to follow the home team, which means that the line gets pulled that way a little bit more than it should be — creating the imbalance. Between 2005 and 2018, home teams won 58.9% of their games. However, they only covered the spread 48.8% of the time. If you add in the juice factor, a bettor who wagered $100 on every home team during that time frame would end up losing $48,226. So take a look at home teams that don’t seem to be all that solid, particularly on defense, because they will give up tough plays late.
Look for road underdogs in games with low point totals
The recreational sports bettor also loves to go with favorites. Why not? After all, the favorite must be the better team, right? This adds value for underdogs, particularly when the point totals are lower. The reason for this is that when a game is lower scoring, the favorite will have a harder time getting enough points to cover the spread. Between 2005 and 2018, road underdogs in a game with a point total at 50 points or less covered the spread 53.2% of the time. That number climbed to 54.6% when the spread was 45 or less. In conference play, that number went even higher, as road dogs in a game with a point total of 45 or less covered 55.9% of the time. You can attribute this to the fact that conference foes know each other from seeing each other once a year or so.
Check out road dogs with a short spread
A short spread means a point spread of no more than four points. The recreational bettor loves to take the favorite in this situation, thinking that not only will their team win, but it will cover the spread easily. Between 2005 and 2018, road underdogs in this situation have covered 54.2% of the time. If you’re looking at moneyline straight up wagers, this is a profitable strategy as well. Between 2005 and 2018, road underdogs in a spread of no more than four points have won 47.1% of the time on the moneyline. However, with the plus-money payouts that come with underdog wins, that has led to a 7.5% return on investment.
Follow reverse line movement when the action is heavy
Reverse line movement means that the line is moving away from the betting percentages. Imagine a team getting about a third of the bets but still sliding from +6 to +5.5. Between 2005 and 2018, teams getting no more than 35% of te betting action but also getting at least one point of reverse line movement have covered the spread 54.1% of the time. If the game is getting twice the average betting amount on a day, the team getting no more than 35% of the bets while also moving in reverse on the line at least one point cover 57% of the time. So if your underdog fits this scenario, it’s a smart pick.
Bonus Tip: Take the “under” in windy conditions
Between 2005 and 2018, when the winds are over 10 mph, the under has come through 54.5% of the time. When the wind jumps to 15, that number jumps to 57.9%. Why is the wind a big deal? More college games are played in outdoor stadiums that have exposure to the wind (so you wouldn’t do this in a game set for a domed stadium), and on the whole, college quarterbacks have weaker arms than their pro counterparts, so they struggle throwing into the wind. Teams tend to run the ball more, which eats up clock, and college kickers have a tougher time in the wind — they’re less accurate on the whole than pro kickers anyway, so add some wind (and some pressure) and things get interesting.
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