The Alabama Crimson Tide walloped Miami (FL) in their opener last weekend, rolling to a 48-17 win. That was not as lopsided as the Week 1 result for their opponents this week, the Mercer Bears. The FCS team ran right over Point University, 69-0. It’s worth noting, of course, that Point University is an NAIA program that does not offer athletic scholarships. This week, Mercer heads to Alabama to take a beating in exchange for a nice paycheck, as not only do the Tide offer scholarships, but quarterback Bryce Young is already a millionaire due to his NIL deal.
The point spread in this game is larger than the over/under point total in many college and pro football games for this weekend, but if you want to take a run at this college football betting opportunity, check out our preview.
NCAAF Preview: Mercer at #1 Alabama
When: Saturday, September 11, 2021, 4:00 pm ET
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
TV: SEC Network
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Alabama -53.5
Why should you bet on the Bears?
Mercer has a somewhat unusual offense, the spread wing. They have a run-first quarterback, a power running back, and a player called the “joker,” a smaller back who goes in motion just off the line of scrimmage before each play. They scored about 25 points per contest a year ago, and they average about two running plays for every pass. Quarterback Carter Peevy was the Freshman of the Year last season in the Southern Conference, running for over 300 yards and passing for more than 1,300 in a shortened spring FCS season. Nakendrick Clark is back after a junior season when he averaged 3.8 yards per carry.
Those numbers really took off last week, as the Bears ran for 539 yards on 51 attempts, scoring seven touchdowns on the ground. The passing game added 239 yards, and Ethan Dirrim and Ty James both return as receivers. Dirrim often plays the “joker” position, while James runs more traditional routes. If you like the Bears to cover, you see the side-to-side movement of the offense testing Alabama at least enough to let Mercer sustain some drives. The passing game is not consistent, even at the FCS level, though, so as long as Alabama’s linebackers and corners focus on containment and coverage, Mercer might not even be able to stay within 7 ½ touchdowns of the Tide.
Why should you put your money on the Crimson Tide?
When Nick Saban is ranting to the press about his team’s intensity, that usually means that an opponent is about to receive the brunt of that frustration. In an interview this week, Saban criticized the win over Miami as “we basically played one half of one game…we haven’t proved that we can play for sixty minutes.” The practices this week, according to Saban, have been less than satisfactory in terms of intensity. So I expect maximum effort from the opening kickoff against Mercer.
In that win over Miami, Bryce Young threw for 344 yards and four scores. Jameson Williams led the receivers with four catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. As a team, the Tide rolled up 501 yards, gaining 28 first downs and holding the ball for 37:03. On third downs, they were 10 of 16 and only had to punt twice. They did pick up eight penalties for 81 yards, but those mistakes should vanish after Saban’s decision to put the team on blast.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Mercer’s athletic department should be able to find a lot of uses for the money that Alabama is paying them to play this game. I see a very long day for the Bears between now and then, though. I predict a final score of Alabama 77, Mercer 6.
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