We have a showdown between the ACC and the American Athletic Conference when the UFC Knights meet the Duke Blue Devils in Wednesday’s Military Bowl. UCF (9-4) last played in a 45-28 loss to Tulane in the AAC Championship despite entering as a 3 ½-point underdog. Duke (8-4) had a push in their last game, a 34-31 home win over Wake Forest as a three-point favorite. Duke and UCF have never met, but UCF should come in with a chip on their shoulder as underdogs despite their slot in the AAC title game. Read our NCAA football bowls betting preview before you lock in your wagers.
NCAAF Preview: Military Bowl
Duke Blue Devils vs UCF Knights
When: Wednesday, December 28, 2022, 2:00 pm ET
Where: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Sling TV
NCAAF Odds: Duke -3.5 / O/U 62.5
→ Why should you bet on the Knights?
The Knights fell to Tulane because of their inability to stop the Tulane running game. The Green Wave led, 10-0, after the first quarter and then never looked back. The Knights did get within three points with 9:48 left in regulation, but it only took 90 seconds for Tulane to restore the ten-point lead. UCF had the ball for almost nine more minutes than Tulane did, but they gave up so many explosive scoring plays that it did not matter. The Knights even won the turnover battle, 3-0, but it did not matter.
The Knights have a stout offense, scoring 34.4 points per game, ranked #26 among FBS schools. The running game is especially strong, putting up 236.1 yards per game, seventh in the nation. They permit 23.2 points per game, which ranks 40th in the nation. Quarterback John Rys Plumlee has 2,404 passing yards and a 14:7 TD:INT ratio, and he also leads the team in rushing with 841 yards and 11 more touchdowns on the ground. R.J. Harvey (767 yards, five TD) and Isaiah Bowser (760 yards, 14 TD) make up a dangerous tailback tandem, and Ryan O’Keefe is the top receiver with 73 catches for 725 yards and five touchdowns.
→ Why should you put your money on the Blue Devils?
Duke finished the season strong, winning four of their last five down the stretch. In the win over Wake Forest, the teams went back and forth, as Duke trailed by four after the first quarter, built a ten-point lead in the second before going into halftime down by three, and trailed by three at the start of the fourth before mounting their comeback. They had the ball for 13:40 more than Wake Forest did and ended up with a big win.
On the year, Duke scored 33.1 points per game, 33rd among FBS schools, and they permitted 22.8 points per game, 36th overall. Riley Leonard threw for 2,794 yards with 20 touchdown passes against just six interceptions. Like his UCF counterpart, Leonard was also the team’s top rusher with 636 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. Jordan Waters, Jaquez Moore and Jaylen Coleman combined for 1,453 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, showing the Blue Devils’ depth.
→ Final Score and Prediction
UCF saw Plumlee struggle against Tulane because of a hamstring injury that limited his speed. We don’t know how much recovery he has been able to make since the AAC Championship. Backup Thomas Castellanos may also get some time, and he does have a strong arm. Duke did play well down the stretch, and Mike Elko was named ACC Coach of the Year. Even so, I think UCF comes in with more motivation, and Plumlee should have had some time to get treatment and recover, and he has been getting the starter level of reps in practice. I predict a final score of UCF 30, Duke 27.
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