If you thought that TCU would even be in the College Football Playoff, let alone playing on January 9 for a national title, then you had a better understanding of the sport that many in the College Football betting industry, including this writer. The Horned Frogs did end the regular season leading the Big 12 standings and managed to knock off Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to face Georgia for the championship. TCU comes in as a 13-point underdog, but the Horned Frogs have spent the season defying the expectations. Can they really take down Georgia? Yes they can – and here’s why.
NCAA News: Why You Should Bet on TCU to win the National Championship
→ Max Duggan
Let’s be honest – Duggan has gotten to the national title game riding an amazing amount of luck, but no champion makes it all the way without the smile of fortune. Duggan was just 14 of 29 for 225 yards, and he threw two interceptions, but he also had two touchdown passes. Duggan’s completion rate isn’t as high as other quarterbacks, but he also shows willingness to take risks by throwing the ball down the field. With Michigan turning the ball over and making ridiculous mistakes in pass coverage and play selection, Duggan was there to take advantage.
→ Georgia’s pass defense has some holes
The Bulldogs have an elite defense – but so did Michigan. Also, both defenses have given up big passing plays down the field. In the SEC, Georgia was just ninth in passing plays of at least 10 yards permitted. In passing plays of at least 30 or 40 yards, Georgia was just 12th. The Bulldogs also don’t pressure passers all that well, so Duggan should have some time in the pocket behind that sizable O-line that he has.
→ TCU can run the ball
The Horned Frogs gashed Michigan for 263 rushing yards last week. That’s the same Michigan defense that finished first in the Big Ten against the run. It’s true that tailback Kendre Miller is listed as questionable, but Emari Demercado had a big game against Michigan too, needing just 17 carries to pick up 150 yards. Georgia leads the nation in run defense, but Michigan’s unit was third in the nation – and look what the Frogs did.
→ TCU can force turnovers
Except for Week 1, TCU’s defense has at least one takeaway in each game this year. In two of the last three games, they have grabbed three takeaways. Michigan coughed the ball up three times. It’s important to note that TCU turned the ball over three times in the Fiesta Bowl as well, but for the season, TCU is still +9 in turnover margin. What’s Georgia’s rating? It’s -1.
→ TCU has a solid red-zone defense
Michigan ran a bizarre trick play on fourth-and-goal from the TCU 2 in the Fiesta Bowl, and the Frogs sniffed it out and got the ball back. Michigan also fumbled the ball on first-and-goal after the referees took Roman Wilson’s touchdown catch off the board. Georgia’s red-zone offense has put up big numbers, but the Bulldogs will have their hands full against TCU.
So why is Georgia favored by 13 after barely escaping an Ohio State team that got routed by Michigan? There is a sense that TCU took advantage of a Michigan team that spent the weeks after winning the Big Ten Championship underestimating the Horned Frogs. The Wolverines came out tight and underprepared, and TCU was just good enough to hold on late. Georgia watched the game and will not make the same mistakes. However, if you like TCU, then you think that your Frogs are good enough to win anyway, for the reasons listed above.
College Football Betting Odds
Love betting NCAA football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date college football lines
