The 2022-23 college football bowl season has shown why a 12-team playoff is the best idea going forward, as the sorting process of moving toward a national champion with a four-team playoff has become a bit absurd. Kansas State, who beat TCU for the Big 12 Championship despite using a backup quarterback, lost to Alabama by 25 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama, who lost twice in overtime (to Tennessee and LSU), did not have a chance to take part in the playoff because of those losses to elite programs. TCU won three games against backup quarterbacks during the regular season, making its way through a Big 12 schedule that presented little in terms of competitive strength. TCU did beat Michigan in the national semifinal, but Jim Harbaugh has a 1-7 lifetime record in bowl games, and despite the officials taking a clear Michigan touchdown off the board, and despite play-calling mistakes and errors on the field that showed a lack of coaching and preparation, Michigan still almost beat the Horned Frogs. Now comes the national championship, a game that probably should feature Alabama and Georgia, as they are the two best teams in the nation, but instead a game featuring Georgia and TCU. The Bulldogs are 13-point favorites, so let’s break down the matchup and consider the outcome from a NCAA Football betting perspective.
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Georgia needed Ohio State to miss a 50-yard field goal attempt as time expired in the Peach Bowl to advance to the national championship. Georgia was down by 14 in the fourth quarter, as the vaunted Bulldog defense took three quarters to show up, but they were able to clamp down on the Buckeyes just in time. Their closest scares during the regular season came at Missouri, where they only won by four, and at Kentucky, where they only won by ten. They permitted a surprisingly high point total (30) to LSU in the SEC Championship, but that game got out of hand in a hurry, so the Bulldogs’ defense relaxed in the second half, making that game closer on the scoreboard than it actually was.
TCU lost to Kansas State, 31-28, in overtime of the Big 12 Championship. During the regular season, they only won two conference games by more than ten points. One of those wins was 31-point rout of an Oklahoma team that didn’t even gain bowl eligibility and featured a backup quarterback in the matchup. The other came in 62-14 fashion over an Iowa State team that also failed to qualify for a bowl. They did beat Kansas State during the regular season, but in that game, the Wildcats had their third-string quarterback running the offense for much of the game. Quarterback Max Duggan leads a physical, quick offense with boldness, but his penchant for relying on the deep ball instead of accuracy (he was just 14 of 29 in the win over Michigan) and his own running will fall short when he runs into a defense that can apply pressure and containment at the same time. Of the teams that were ranked when TCU beat them, only one (Kansas State) is still in the Top 25.
The Georgia offense averages 39.4 points per game, while TCU puts up 41.1 points per game. Playing in the Big 12 and navigating a relatively easy non-conference schedule obviously gave TCU an edge, as the Big 12 is much closer to the AAC in terms of competitive strength than it is to the SEC. Both teams ran for over 200 yards per game, but Georgia pulled off their numbers against competition that included a demolition of Oregon in Week 1 and then-#1 Tennessee.
Georgia’s defense permits 14.8 points per game, including the 41 they allowed in the Peach Bowl, while TCU permits 26.4 per contest. The fact that Michigan put up 45 points on TCU despite having multiple drives stall in the red zone without any points going up on the board is suggestive of the issues TCU might have against a Georgia team that is much more likely to be prepared for the game – and less likely to overlook the Horned Frogs.
ATS Pick: Georgia -13
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