The Arkansas Razorbacks return to a bowl game since 2016, when they lost the Belk Bowl to Virginia Tech. Sam Pittman has turned this team around from the dumpster fire it had become under Chad Morris, making the Razorbacks another thorny problem for SEC West teams to solve. This is a team built with two powerful lines and a grinding running game that is hard to get off the field. Despite its flaws, the team won four of five down the stretch, with the only loss coming against Alabama, a 42-35 setback. They face Penn State, a team that benefited from its history in getting the New Year’s Day bowl slot after dropping five of seven to finish the season, only beating Maryland and Rutgers during that time. They did stop Wisconsin and Auburn early in the season, but the team’s inability to mount a consistent offense led to a number of close losses. Which team will win?
Read on to learn our college football betting thoughts.
NCAAF Preview: Outback Bowl Preview (Saturday, January 1)
Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) vs Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4)
When: Saturday, January 1, 2022, 12:00 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Arkansas -1 / O/U 48 // Penn State +100 / Arkansas -120
Why should you bet on the Nittany Lions?
Penn State still has a stout defensive line, with plenty of athleticism and agility. The defense permitted fewer than 17 points per contest, although their sack totals are not all that impressive. Even so, they can pressure the quarterback and cause difficulty for opposing offenses. The Nittany Lions commit too many penalties, but the Razorbacks commit even more, about 30 more in yards per game, which could give Penn State a field position advantage. Add that to an O-line that lets opposing defenses get into the backfield too often, and you see Penn State forcing Arkansas into a lot of third-and-long situations.
As far as missing personnel, Penn State will not have star receiver Jahan Dotson, who opted out for the draft and should go in the first round. All-Big Ten safety Jaquan Brisker, defensive end Arnold Ebiketie and linebackers Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith also opted out, and defensive coordinator Brent Pry has already departed to take the head job at Virginia Tech.
Why should you put your money on the Razorbacks?
The Razorbacks still have an impressive game, even without Burks in the game, and Penn State will not have Jaquan Brisker at one of the safety positions. The Razorbacks protect the bal well while still hitting big pass plays down the field. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson has the arm to hit deep passes, but he can also run – he has 554 yards and five scores on the ground. On the season he threw 21 touchdown passes against just three picks. If Jefferson can keep things going on offense and hit enough plays down the field, that should put up enough points for the defense to manage the game.
Arkansas did not get hit as hard with the opt-out bug. Top wide receiver Treylon Burks did not travel to Florida, and defensive end Tre Williams is also not playing. However, this list is a lot shorter and involves a lot fewer key players than what the Nittany Lions have to deal with.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Penn State simply has too many top-shelf players missing this game to beat Arkansas. Quarterback Sean Clifford will hit some big passes, but it won’t be enough to stop an Arkansas team that can bring a balanced attack on offense. I predict a final score of Arkansas 31, Penn State 20.
Outback Bowl : Penn State Nittany Lions (7-5) vs Arkansas Razorbacks: Bet the Game Today
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