PAC-12 Championship Odds & Prediction: Stanford vs. USC

There isn’t quite as much anticipation hanging over the Pac-12 Championship as there is in the other Power Five conferences, because neither USC nor Stanford is likely to get a slot in the College Football Playoff thanks to their multiple losses — and their lack of wins over quality programs in the process. Even so, this will be a tightly contested matchup for bragging rights in one of the nation’s top conferences. Stanford won the Pac-12 North with a 7-2 record in conference play and comes in after beating Notre Dame, 38-20, a week ago. USC won the Pac-12 South with an 8-1 conference record and edged UCLA last week, 28-23. The teams met early in September, with USC rolling to a 42-24 win. Check out our college football odds preview on this Friday night thriller.

PAC-12 Championship Odds & Prediction: Stanford vs. USC

When: Friday, December 1, 2017, 8:00pm ET Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA TV: ESPN Radio: Stanford Cardinal Sports Network / USC Trojans Radio Network Live Stream: WatchESPN PAC-12 Championship Odds: USC (-4), O/U 59

Weather Forecast

• Partly Cloudy: 12^°C/54^°F
• Humidity: 81%
• Precipitation: 5%
• Wind: 3 mph WNW
• Cloud Cover: 41%
• Type of Stadium: N/A

Why should you bet on the Cardinal?

Stanford rides in with some momentum, as they did knock off two teams in the top 10 to seal their trip to the conference title game, beating then-#9 Washington and then-#8 Notre Dame. Stanford continues to live by the run, with tailback Bryce Love filling in quite nicely for Christian McCaffrey, who now plays for the NFL’s Carolina Panthers. Love has run for more than 100 yards in all but one game this season, tallying 1,848 yards so far this year and scoring 16 touchdowns. In that Week Two tilt with USC, Love rumbled for 160 yards. This running game compensates for the limitations that quarterback K.J. Costello has throwing the ball. Defensively, Stanford has come a long way since getting routed by USC. They have permitted only 20 points per contest this season — which includes the 42 points that the Trojans put up. In that game, USC rolled up 623 yards of total offense, but since then, the Cardinal have shored up their secondary with improved coverage and done a better job of managing the defensive line, as they showed in wins over Washington. If Stanford had been able to beat Washington State, they might well be in the playoff consideration, but those three losses (including one at San Diego State) were just too much for the committee.

Why should you put your money on the Trojans?

USC also brings a nice winning streak to the conference title game, winners of four in a row. Quarterback Sam Darnold has shaken off a rough start to the season to throw for 3,462 yards and 24 touchdowns against a dozen picks. Six of those interceptions came in the first three games of the season, though, and he has only thrown three in his last six games. When Darnold has faltered, the USC offense has been able to lean on tailback Ronald Jones II, who has run for at least 100 yards in his last four games. On the year, he has rolled up 1,346 yards and scored 16 touchdowns, and in USC’s win over Stanford, he picked up 116 yards and found the end zone twice. USC’s defense is fairly solid against the run, but they have a secondary that can get torched. They permit 26 points per game, and their two losses on the season (to Washington State and Notre Dame) came largely because of their opponents’ success in the passing game. If you like USC, you see them containing the Stanford running attack.

Latest PAC-12 Championship Betting Trends

 

• Stanford is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Southern California
• Stanford is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Stanford’s last 8 games
• Southern California is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
• Southern California is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern California’s last 6 games

 

Expert PAC-12 Championship Pick and Final Prediction

Based on the improvement that Sam Darnold has shown in the passing game and the success that USC has had stopping the run, I see the Trojans pulling this win out. I don’t think it will be as much of a laugher as the Week Two matchup, but I do see USC winning the Pac-12. I predict a final score of USC 31, Stanford 20.