This is an early look at the College Football Playoffs. Remember when the Colorado Buffaloes started the 2023 season with a perfect 3-0 record? They went to TCU, who had last appeared in a national championship game against Georgia, and beat the Horned Frogs on the road, 45-42.
Then they routed Nebraska at home and escaped Colorado State in overtime. Reality ensued the next week as Oregon rolled to a 42-6 win. After that, the Buffaloes would only win one more game, but five of their eight losses last year came by just one score.
Despite their 4-8 campaign, the Buffaloes have inspired a lot of sports betting optimism. One prop heavy on action this year is Colorado to win the Big 12 at +2500.
They’re also listed at +26000 to win the national championship according to Xbet Sportsbook – and they’re surprisingly popular.
College Football Playoffs Analysis: An Early Look at the CFP 2024 – Who’s In? Who’s Out?
Let’s take a look at who is likely to get into the 12-team CFP bracket, and who is likely to be stuck on the outside looking in.
Clemson Tigers Playoff Pick +174
The Tigers, as always, will have an ironclad defense. However, without a legitimate offense, it will be hard for the Tigers to get into ACC title game.
Dabo Swinney refuses to use the transfer portal, which means that experienced players who have produced at this level aren’t showing up at Clemson.
Instead, their blue-chip players are freshmen who have to learn the speed and other nuances of the college game.
That means that Cade Klubnik doesn’t have any college-ready wide receiver threats. Bryant Wesco could grow into that sort of player, but he’s not there yet. Outside the CFP.
^Michigan Wolverines Playoff Pick +145
Head coach Sherrone Moore takes over for Jim Harbaugh. The defense is back, by and large, but the offense is getting a major revamp with big changes coming at quarterback, wide receiver, and on the O-line.
Plus, the Big Ten just got a lot more interesting with UCLA, USC, Oregon and Washington joining the league, and Penn State might finally be ready to make a move. Outside the CFP.
^Florida State Seminoles Playoff Pick +360
Losing to Georgia Tech in Ireland isn’t just an early upset – it’s an 0-1 start to ACC play. They turn around and play Boston College on Labor Day in prime time.
BC stopped SMU in the Fenway Bowl and will come in upset-minded. If the Seminoles aren’t locked in, they could end up starting 0-2 in conference play. It’s an uphill climb to get to the final 12 right now. Outside the CFP.
^Oklahoma Sooners Playoff Pick +470
This team has been the darling of the CFP for years. They would roll through the Big 12 thanks to their dynamic offense, failing to install a meaningful defense, and then get undressed in the national semifinal.
They do play at Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU, and they host Alabama, but a two-loss Oklahoma team, given that strength of schedule, would still get in. In the CFP.
^Tennessee Volunteers Playoff Pick +181
Nico Iamaleava has all kinds of skill around him in the offense. His O-line is experienced and solid.
The defense could give up some big plays thanks to that depleted secondary, but if the front seven can get a pass rush going, the Vols could be one of the lower seeds in this bracket. In the CFP.
^Missouri Tigers Playoff Pick +181
The Tigers won 11 games last season, and they have their quarterback and best wide receivers coming back.
Defensive coordinator Blake Baker left for LSU, and the Tigers lost their best pass rusher and some other key defensive contributors. Outside the CFP.
^Alabama Crimson Tide Playoff Pick -110
This is another program that gets every benefit of the doubt from the selection committee.
Jalen Milroe returns at quarterback, and the front seven on defense will be tough to penetrate. A two-loss Tide team makes this bracket. In the CFP.
^Penn State Nittany Lions Playoff Pick -141
This team always gets stuck behind Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East. Now that the Big Ten doesn’t have divisions, that won’t keep them out of the Big Ten Championship anymore.
With the field expanded to a dozen teams, and with the history of this program, expect a two-loss Nittany Lions team to make it. In the CFP.
^Ohio State Buckeyes Playoff Pick -649
With Jim Harbaugh gone, this conference is the Buckeyes’ to lose. Right? Oh, that’s right, the Oregon Ducks are in the conference now.
However, the Buckeyes have all kinds of skill coming back from last year and also got a wealth of talent through the transfer portal. In the CFP.
^Notre Dame Fighting Irish Playoff Pick -164
The schedule isn’t as daunting as it usually is. They had to replace some lost talent on offense, but their pass defense is one of the best in the game. In the CFP.
^Texas Longhorns Playoff Pick -232
Quinn Ewers returns at quarterback. The O-line is still solid. Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden have transferred in at wide receiver.
Can the Longhorns deal with elite opposition every week? We doubted them last year, but they beat Alabama and made the CFP. In the CFP.
^Oregon Ducks Playoff Pick -141
Their skill players can fly, and both of their lines are big and strong. Dillon Gabriel transfers in at quarterback, along with backup Dante Moore.
Evan Stewart, the one-time five-star wide receiving recruit, has come to town also. In the CFP.
^Georgia Bulldogs Playoff Pick -676
The Bulldogs play against Clemson in a neutral-site opener and then head to Alabama, Texas and Ole Miss. Even with three losses in these four contests, the Bulldogs could still get in, because the CFP loves the SEC, and Georgia’s talent is massive.
Plus, there’s that sense that the committee snubbed the Bulldogs last year. In the CFP.
^Utah Utes Playoff Pick +212
The four highest-ranked conference champions get into the CFP, and someone has to win the Big 12. Right?
Cam Rising returns at quarterback after a whole year off, and the Utes might have the best defense in the Big 12. Could they come in and win it in their first year? Absolutely. In the CFP.
^Oklahoma State Cowboys
Who is more of a master of grievances than Cowboys coach Mike Gundy?
The Big 12 is really a three-team chase for the conference title, but if the Cowboys can get to the Big 12 Championship without a loss, they’ll get into this bracket even with a blemish at that last step. In the CFP.
^Ole Miss Rebels Playoff Pick -129
Lane Kiffin finally smells his chance at glory now that Nick Saban isn’t coaching one state over. His offense is high-flying, and the defense is good enough to keep handing the ball back to the offense. In the college football playoffs.
^Which coach is under the MOST pressure this weekend: Mario Cristobal or Billy Napier? 🤔 @TheSamAcho pic.twitter.com/5oNTFtvlIF
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) August 28, 2024
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