Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction for the Orange Bowl
Two of the most storied programs in the annals of college football square off in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night, one of the two semifinal games in this year’s College Football Playoff.
In recent years, when you think of Penn State, you might think of a school that has lost some of its former glory.
James Franklin
Head coach Franklin has largely been tasked with the job of restoring the good name of a program that had become synonymous with tradition, continuity and excellence under Joe Paterno.
His 45 years at the helm led to 37 bowl appearances, five unbeaten seasons, and two national championships, in 1982 and 1986.
409 wins are more than any other FBS NCAA coach. However, his tenure ended in shame as one of his assistants, Jerry Sandusky, brought down the program after a sexual abuse scandal became public.
Paterno’s statue on campus came down, and the school entered a dark time. Franklin has re-established standards of integrity, but in the biggest games, his teams have fallen short.
He has gone 13-25 against teams ranked in the AP Top 25 while at Penn State, 3-17 against teams in the top 10, and 1-13 against teams in the top 5.
With emphatic wins over SMU and Boise State in the first two rounds of the College Football Playoff, Franklin has elevated his team’s profile once again, getting them to the sport’s final four.
About Notre Dame
Next up is a date with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Much like Penn State, Notre Dame is a school covered in football glory, but much of that glory is captured in sepia and black-and-white photographs, as it has been decades since the likes of Knute Rockne and Joe Montana have taken the field under the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. The Irish have played football since 1887.
They are the only premier college football program that remains an independent, free of conference affiliation, largely due to the passionate nature of their fan base.
The television money that the Notre Dame fans bring to college football is the reason why they have been able to remain independent and still obtain special consideration in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee and its predecessors.
The program has 11 national championships – but none since 1988. They made the CFP in 2018, 2020 and again this year, but this is the first year that they have won a CFP game.
How did the Fighting Irish arrive?
They stopped Indiana in the first round and then shut down Georgia in a defensive battle in the quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl, but neither the Hoosiers nor the Bulldogs, who came in with a backup quarterback, represented a stern test for the Irish.
Notre Dame’s best wins have come in the last two games; in the regular season, they opened with an impressive win at Texas A&M before losing at home to Northern Illinois.
Since then, they have run off a dozen wins in a row, but their toughest regular-season opponents were Louisville, Army and Navy. The Nittany Lions’ only win over a ranked opponent came on Homecoming weekend against Illinois. They lost at home to Ohio State by a touchdown and then lost to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship by eight.
Series History
These teams have met 19 times, but not since 2007. The series is tied, 9-9-1. Perhaps the most famous meeting came in the “Snow Bowl” in 1992. The Nittany Lions were up, 16-9, with fewer than 30 seconds remaining in regulation.
However, Notre Dame quarterback Rick Mirer threw a game-winning pass to Jerome Bettis, who would go on to enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame as a tailback.
Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz opted to go for two, and the Irish converted, taking the 17-16 win. If you plan on including the 20th meeting of this rivalry in your sports betting, read on to get our prediction.
^How to Watch and Bet Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction for the Orange Bowl
NCAAF Spread/Total: Notre Dame -2 (O/U 46.5)
NCAAF Moneylines: Penn State +107 / Notre Dame -131
When: Thursday, January 9, 2025, 7:30 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: ESPN
Radio: ESPN Radio
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Analysis
Notre Dame is a throwback team on offense, relying on a stout running game and a short- to medium-range passing game to move the ball. They convert their third downs, but their drives take a long time to pay off. The defense is fairly conservative, less likely to blitz than many college programs, but they can also stack up the takeaways.
Their back seven does not miss tackles, and their secondary plays physical ball but can keep up with speedy wideouts. They’re taking on a Penn State team that has size, speed and talent on both sides of the ball, but they lost to the two elite teams they played – Oregon and Ohio State.
They got by solid teams in Illinois and Minnesota, but they struggled against both of them. In the playoff, they routed SMU and Boise State, but SMU was in the American Athletic Conference a year ago.
ACC Championship
Getting to the Championship was a huge improvement for the Mustangs, but taking on the Nittany Lions in front of a sellout crowd in the second-largest stadium in the world was a moment for which the Mustangs were not yet ready. They got a similar opponent in Boise State, the winners of the Mountain West Conference but ranked more highly than they should have been, despite the record-setting running from Ashton Jeanty.
The Fighting Irish bring significant intangibles into this game. It’s hard to tell which of the three phases of the game will bring dramatic change to the contest, but they’ve all shown up at different times.
This is a team that plays without fear. They play within themselves, particularly on defense, but there is no quitting at any point. There are numbers to back up optimism about the Irish as well, though.
When Penn State lost this season, they gave up a lot on the ground. Ohio State ran for 176 yards, and Oregon ran for 183. USC ran for 189 yards, but the Irish were able to take advantage of the fact that Lincoln Riley still doesn’t think he needs a defense to win in Division I football. Notre Dame ran for at least 154 yards in all but two games – the win over Georgia and the loss to Northern Illinois. Those were the only teams to keep the Irish under five yards per rushing attempt.
I see the Irish holding up on both the O-line and D-line. They may take some tackles for loss, but their rushing attack between the tackles should make up for those problems. That power rushing game should help them win the battle for time of possession, and their defense should get a crucial takeaway, perhaps in the second half.
Mitch Jeter
Their kicker, Jeter, was a perfect 3 of 3 on field goals in the quarterfinal win over Georgia, so he’s not afraid of the big moment either. There’s also Xavier Watts, a two-time All-American at safety.
He leads the Irish with six picks and has also forced a fumble. He lurks in the secondary as a threat to all quarterbacks, and he should be able to close on balls that Drew Allar throws, as the Nittany Lions quarterback has not shown elite deep-ball strength this season.
^Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction provided by Xbet Sportsbook
Penn State Nittany Lions Analysis
Injuries to Consider
They comes in with a number of injuries on both sides of the ball. At this point, their depth is virtually nil. When they took on Georgia, they lost defensive tackle Rylie Mills (knee) and tailback Jeremiyah Love (leg). Love should return for the semifinal, but it will take some serious rehab to get him back to 100 percent.
Penn State also gets the benefit of having played two days earlier than Notre Dame, who had to wait one more day to play the Sugar Bowl after the awful attacks that took place in New Orleans, delaying the game. Penn State’s wins over SMU and Boise State were largely based on suffocating defense, pounding O-line play and the turnover differential.
The Nittany Lions had three takeaways against SMU and four more against Boise State. In three of their last four games, Penn State has picked off three interceptions. Ashton Jeanty ran for more than 2,000 yards for Boise State, but the Penn State run defense largely kept him in check despite the early injury to Abdul Carter (arm).
That defense also held a fairly prolific SMU rushing offense to just 58 yards, and you can expect them to load the box and dare Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard to beat them down the field. Notre Dame only gained 244 yards of offense against Georgia, and their win boiled down to a timely strip-sack and a kickoff return to the house to start the second half. If Penn State can limit those mistakes, then they should be there right at the end this time around.
Penn State’s Offensive
The offense ranks second in the nation in success rate, fifth in EPA per play and second in marginal efficiency. Their biggest drawback is the lack of big play potential, as they rank just 92nd in yards per successful play and 59th in explosiveness.
Much like Notre Dame, this is a team that likes to pound the ball down the field. Their defense only permits 5.2 yards per dropback, which ranks 14th among FBS schools. That came despite giving up a lot through the air against Oregon, Ohio State, and USC.
Abdul Carter
Carter should return for this game, and he leads a pass rush that is 25th in sacks per dropback (7.8%) and ninth overall in pressure rate (42.3%). As we mentioned earlier, Penn State’s strength of schedule is greater than that of Notre Dame at this point.
Part of Notre Dame’s schedule involves an agreement to play four ACC schools – the price of putting all of their other sports in the ACC – and they have traditional rivalries against USC, Navy and Stanford.
That makes less room for elite matchups in their schedule. We’ll see if their wins over Indiana and a Georgia team without Carson Beck made them an elite team when they take the field on Thursday night.
^Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction & Final Score for the Orange Bowl
Notre Dame was able to stop Georgia and end a 31-year drought in major bowl games thanks to a special-teams breakthrough and some costly turnovers by the Bulldogs.
A lot of college football experts thought the Bulldogs might be able to beat the Irish even with a backup quarterback, but we saw the Irish defense stand tall.
Now the Irish will show up on Thursday with a two-day rest disadvantage, and given how physical this game should be, that rest differential could make a difference.
Penn State will want to pound the ball on the ground, and the Irish will be short Rylie Mills on the D-line.
The Nittany Lions stayed within range of Ohio State and Oregon during the regular season, and they wore down an SMU defense that was elite in several metrics in the first round of the CFP.
I see Penn State doing enough to win the battles of the line of scrimmage and avoiding the same sorts of mistakes that plagued Georgia.
My final score prediction is Penn State 23, Notre Dame 20.
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Penn State vs Notre Dame Prediction for the Orange Bowl 2025
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