NCAAF Spread: Florida at Kentucky Betting Preview & Prediction

The Florida Gators may have pulled their season out of disaster — at least for another week — when Feleipe Franks heaved a Hail Mary to Tyrie Cleveland as the game came to a close last week, leading Florida to a 26-20 win over Tennessee. The Gators had taken a bad 33-17 loss to Michigan in their opener, and many observers wondered if they would have the offense to contend in the SEC East. They visit a Kentucky team that has goals of posting yet another upset — as they took down South Carolina on the road last week, by the score of 23-13. Kentucky looks to avenge the 45-7 beating that Florida administered to them down in Gainesville last year. And although Florida is slight betting favorites over Kentucky this week, the Wildcats have done pretty well this season. Check out our NCAAF spread on this matchup before locking in your own wagers.

NCAAF Spread: Florida at Kentucky Betting Preview & Prediction

Want to know what it’s like? It’s a feeling you can’t explain. #TheSwamp #AllBite18 #Gators pic.twitter.com/iiclpv6i6P

— Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 19, 2017

When: Saturday, September 23, 2017, 7:30pm ET Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, KY TV: SEC ESPN Network Radio: WDAE-AM 620 (Florida) / 1530 AM (Kentucky) Live Stream: WatchESPN NCAA Spread: Florida -2.5, O/U 44 

Series History

• Total Meetings: 67
• First Meeting: FLA 0 – KC 52 (1917)
• Last Meeting: FLA 45 – KC 7 (2016)
• All-Time Series: FLA 50-17
• Largest Margin of Victory: FLA +66
• Longest Win Streak: FLA W30
• Current Win Streak: FLA 30 winning streak since 1987

Why should you bet on the Gators? Florida showed once again that they have one of the best defenses in the SEC — when they entered the fourth quarter against Tennessee last week, they led 6-3, before the offensive fireworks of the final frame. However, this was an instance of a defense bending but not breaking, as the Volunteers did gain 442 yards on the day, with 183 of those on the ground. It helped that Florida snagged three interceptions from Tennessee quarterback Quinten Dormady, bringing those drives to a premature end and keeping the Volunteers out of the end zone in those first three quarters. The Gator offense remains a work in progress. Florida did not score their first offensive touchdown of the game until just over five minutes remained in that last period, with Franks finding Brandon Powell for a five-yard score. On the night, Franks went 18 for 28 for 212 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Franks showed that he has a cannon of an arm with that Hail Mary, and if the offense can produce more consistently, then they have a shot not only at beating Kentucky (and covering) but also winning the SEC East Division.

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 21.5
• Total Yards: 286
• Rush Yards: 89.5
• Passing Yards: 196.5

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 26.5
• Total Yards: 437.5
• Rush Yards: 199
• Passing Yards: 238.5

Why should you put your money on the Wildcats? The Kentucky defense is the story of the Wildcats’ revival this season. They limited South Carolina to only 54 yards of rushing on 20 carries. If they can bottle up the Gators’ offense in a similar way, then they have a real chance to pull off this upset at home. Florida has struggled to score historically over the past few season, their outburst against Tennessee last week notwithstanding. If Feleipe Franks struggles, Malik Zaire, who transferred in as a graduate student from Notre Dame, stands ready on the bench. The Kentucky offense was also impressive, as they roared off 20 straight points after South Carolina scored the first six points of the game. Quarterback Stephen Johnson went 16 for 25 for 16 yards on the night, but the real story was tailback Benjamin Snell, who scored a pair of touchdowns and picked up 102 yards on 32 attempts. While a lot of those attempts ended up stuffed at the line, some of his breakout runs extended drives and kept South Carolina’s defense on the field.

Team Statistics

Offense:

• Average Score For: 24.6
• Total Yards: 347
• Rush Yards: 156
• Passing Yards: 191

Defense:

• Average Score Against: 15.33
• Total Yards: 346
• Rush Yards: 57
• Passing Yards: 289

Latest NCAAF Spread Trends

-Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games -Florida is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games -The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida’s last 9 games -Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games -Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Expert NCAAF Spread Pick and Final Score Prediction

Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games. They did look impressive in knocking off South Carolina, but Florida represents a new level of play. Florida has won nine of the last 10 games in this series against the spread, including the last five played at Kentucky. I like the Gators to do just enough to win and cover in this one, with a final score of Gators 20, Wildcats 16, as Florida takes another step toward an SEC East crown.