The Kansas State Wildcats are in Houston for the Texas Bowl for the third time since 2006. Kansas State has a solid track record in bowl games in recent years, winning two of their last three; a win on Tuesday would give them three bowl wins in four seasons for the first time since 1999-2002. LSU comes in with interim head coach Brad Davis at the helm, after LSU and Ed Orgeron mutually agreed on his departure, even though he led LSU to a national championship in 2019. How will the Tigers look under Davis’ leadership?
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NCAAF Preview: TaxAct Texas Bowl (Tuesday, January 4)
Kansas State Wildcats (7-5) vs LSU Tigers (6-6)
When: Tuesday, January 4, 2022, 9:00 pm ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Kansas State -4.5 / O/U 48 // Kansas State -200 / LSU +170
Why should you bet on the Tigers?
Interestingly, LSU opened as 2 ½-point favorites in this game, but the action came in so heavily on Kansas State that the line jumped significantly, eventually a touchdown in the Wildcats’ direction. LSU last posted a losing season in 1999, and they need a victory in the Texas Bowl to avoid breaking that long streak. The Tigers will have Brian Kelly, whom they lured from Notre Dame, to lead the team in 2022, so Davis’ leadership here is quite temporary.
One sign of the transitional status of LSU’s program is the fact that only 51 scholarship players will dress for the Tigers in this game. After news hit of Orgeron’s departure, players began heading to the transfer portal in droves, and the Tigers also have a number of players who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft, such as linebacker Damone Clark and tailback Tyrion Davis-Price.
Why should you put your money on the Wildcats?
Kansas State’s season has been a roller coaster as the Wildcats started with three wins in a row – and then dropped three straight to open Big 12 play. They then won four in a row before losing two straight against Baylor and the University of Texas. In teams that qualified for bowl games this season, the Wildcats won three of seven straight up. They are a run-first offense, led by tailback Deuce Vaughn, who was named Second Team All-Big 12 after the season.
Starting quarterback Skylar Thompson, who went down with an ankle injury in the loss to Baylor, looks likely to play against LSU on Tuesday, and he makes the Wildcats much more challenging to defend because he can throw and run equally well. Even if he does not have to run a lot, he had his best year as a passer in 2021, throwing for 1,854 yards and completing 68.8 percent of his attempts. The Wildcats are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games as favorites, and having Thompson back would make covering a lot likelier. You will want to check the latest injury updates to find out Thompson’s status before locking in your bets on Tuesday’s games.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
This is likely to be a close game that features more defensive prowess than offensive fireworks. Kansas State saw their offensive coordinator depart after the regular season, and Orgeron played a significant role in the offensive planning for the Tigers. Kansas State put up 23.3 points per game against their six Big 12 opponents who advanced to bowl games, and LSU has only broken the 27-point mark one time in their last eight games. LSU has seen four of their last five games stay under the point total – and the under has prevailed in five of Kansas State’s last six games. I feel more confident about this game staying under 48 than picking against this spread. I predict a final score of Kansas State 20, LSU 17, but I would more money on the point total than either a spread pick or a moneyline pick.
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