Don't Sleep on These Teams: Analyzing College Football Odds

Don’t Sleep on These Teams: Analyzing College Football Odds

The 2024 college football season will be intriguing for a number of reasons. The dissolution of the Pac-12 has been the most seismic story, as its teams either ended up in the ACC, the Big Ten, the Big 12, or (in the case of Washington State and Oregon State) a pair of teams in search of a conference. The expansion of the College Football Playoff from four teams to a dozen means that losing one key conference game won’t end the national championship hopes for teams like Penn State, Tennessee, Georgia, and the like. There is room for some teams not named Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State to emerge into legitimate contender status. Which teams will pop out of the woodwork and shock the sport? Read on to see our thoughts as you put together your college football odds and sports betting strategy.

College Football Odds: Which Teams Will Come out of Nowhere in 2024?

 

USC Trojans

Yes, they had Caleb Williams the last two years. He won the Heisman Trophy two years ago. However, even with the quarterback that the Chicago Bears took with the top overall pick in the NFL draft back in April, the Trojans only went 8-5 in their last season in the Pac-12. If they hadn’t won at Cal, 50-49, they would have been just 7-6. The problem for the Trojans is their defense. Head coach Lincoln Riley treated defense as a nuisance when he led Oklahoma to Big 12 championships, only to get run off the field in College Football Playoff appearances. At USC, he has a similar approach to defense, but the Pac-12 had better offensive teams than the Big 12, which is why the Trojans haven’t been able to sniff the CFP since Riley went west. However, look at their next quarterback, Miller Moss. He threw six touchdown passes in the Trojans’ bowl game win over…Louisville. The Trojans do have a new defensive coordinator, and the Big Ten at least gives the Trojans opportunities against some of the game’s heaviest hitters. Can they take advantage? We know they will score points.

NCAA Football USC Lines to Win

 

Tennessee Volunteers

Joe Milton III has left Tennessee for the NFL and will start his pro career with the New England Patriots. In his place, Nico Iamaleava started in the Volunteers’ bowl date with Iowa. Many observers thought that the vaunted Hawkeye defense would shut down a backup quarterback. However, Iamaleava went 12 of 20 for 151 yards and a touchdowns, and he did not turn the ball over. He also ran for three scores as the coaches kept the offensive game plan simple but effective. Tailback Dylan Sampson picked up big yards as well, and the Vols rolled, 35-0. Could Tennessee emerge from the shadow of Alabama and Georgia in the SEC? That’s a tall order, but getting into the top 12 of the CFP is a lot easier than having to win the conference, or at least get to the conference title game.

NCAA Football Tennessee Lines to Win

 

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Big 12 has been a weird conference for a while now. There were the years when no one could knock off Oklahoma, despite the fact that the Sooners didn’t have a defense. Then there was the year that no one could beat TCU until Kansas State did it in the Big 12 Championship with a backup quarterback, and then the Horned Frogs went on to shock Michigan in the national semifinal before getting rocked by Georgia. TCU then opened 2023 by losing at home to a Colorado team that would only win three more games last season. This year, people are talking about Utah and Arizona as potential conference favorites, but West Virginia could come out of nowhere. Garrett Greene was the MVP of the Dukes Mayo Bowl, throwing a 75-yard bomb on the first play from scrimmage and put up immense numbrs on the day. The key is whether the Mountaineers can play defense, and whether they can win on the road. Morgantown is a tough place to play, but West Virginia hasn’t been taking that mystique on the road lately. Figuring out those two questions could make the Mountaineers a playoff surprise.

NCAA Football West Virginia Lines to Win

 

NCAA Football Kick Off Schedule

Week Zero: Saturday, Aug. 24
• Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (in Dublin, Ireland)
• Norfolk State vs. Florida A&M
• SMU at Nevada
• Montana State at New Mexico
• Delaware State at Hawaii
Week 1: Thursday, Aug. 29 to Sunday, Sept. 1
• North Carolina at Minnesota
• Clemson vs. Georgia
• Miami (FL) at Florida
• Notre Dame at Texas A&M
• Penn State at West Virginia
• Georgia State at Georgia Tech
• North Dakota State at Colorado
• South Dakota State at Oklahoma State
• LSU vs. Southern California
• North Carolina Central vs. Alabama State

 
 
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2024 Underrated Teams Before the next 2024 Season
 

It’s been a long, long time since so many college football teams had a path to a national championship. For most of the history of the sport, voting took place after the bowl games, and the winner of the balloting got the title. Some years, there were divided titles, as there were two different press polls (AP and UPI). This led to some frustration and the eventual development of a college football championship game, which expanded to a four-team playoff. As we have seen in recent years, the standards of the College Football Playoff selection committee have tended to favor members in the Power 5 conferences. Expanding the field to a dozen teams, though, makes a Cinderella championship more likely. The field really needed to expand; over the last 10 years, just six schools (Michigan, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama) had 29 of the 40 slots in the College Football Playoff. Now that there are paths for more teams to reach a national semifinal – and a championship game – let’s look the College Football Odds for some teams that could crash the party and upend sports betting on this prop.

Underrated College Football Odds and Teams that Could Surprise Us | NCAA Football Lines

Ole Miss Rebels

It’s true that the Rebels have won 29 games over the last three seasons, so they’re not really a dark horse. However, since the BCS (the predecessor to the CFP) came into being, only a dozen teams have won national titles. The Rebels have a third-year quarterback returning in Jaxson Dart, along with most of the skill players around him. They also brought in the highest-ranked transfer class in the nation, including the speed and flash of Juice Wells, depth along the O-line, elite strength and speed on the D-line, and some important secondary depth. Ole Miss doesn’t have to play Texas or Alabama. They do see Georgia, but at home. There aren’t many schedules that friendly in the Power 5 conferences this year.

NCAA Football Ole Miss Lines to Win

Penn State Nittany Lions

We’ve been hearing for a long time that James Franklin has the Nittany Lions ready to contend in the Big Ten. Then they lose to both Michigan and Ohio State in Big Ten play, and their shot at a title is done. It’s been almost three decades since Penn State had a shot at a national title. This year, they get Drew Allar back for a third year at quarterback. He was the top quarterback and the third overall prospect in the recruiting class of 2022. Two of the best tailbacks in the nation will be waiting for handoffs. The defense has players who will go in the 2025 NFL draft at all three levels. Allar does need to improve his play as a second-year starter. The O-line needs to do a better job of opening holes and giving Allar time to pass. However, Penn State has two straight seasons with double-digit win totals, and if they can do it again, they would likely get one of the 12 spots in the playoff.

NCAA Football Penn State Lines to Win

Arizona Wildcats

It will be interesting to see how long the Big 12 keeps its automatic bid into the College Football Playoff. Texas and Oklahoma have left for the SEC, and getting Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado from the Pac-12 mean a greater recruiting area and television market, but not a lot of elite quality in terms of football programs. Last year, the Big 12 champion Texas Longhorns ended a long stretch of teams from the conference getting into the CFP only to see national humiliation ensue. Arizona does have Noah Fifta returning at quarterback alongside wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Both of those players are stars. They did lose three games in 2023, but the combined losing margin was just 16 points, and two of those losses came in overtime. They did beat five teams ranked in the top 25. There are two tough road dates in the Wildcats’ Big 12 schedule (Kansas State and Utah). If the Wildcats can take care of business in the Big 12, that’s when anything can happen. After all, TCU beat Michigan in the national semifinals a couple of years back, before reality set in against Georgia.

NCAA Football Arizona Lines to Win

 
 

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