Now that we’re near the halfway point of the 2022 college football season, let’s talk about some teams that you might think about when it comes to covers. Hawai’i is just 1-5, but last week they headed to the mainland to face San Diego State, where they entered as 24-point underdogs – but only lost by two. When you get into the Group of Five, there are weeks when the sports betting point spreads lack balance – or you have situations where the teams are so inconsistent that it’s hard to lock on a trend. Fresno State has major chaos happen from week to week. They took on UConn as 23-point favorites – and lost. They were right there with Boise State, tied at 20 in the third quarter, but then Boise scored the last 20 points. However, the Power Five also has some head-scratchers; take a look at Northwestern. The Wildcats have spent the last few years overachieving in the Big Ten West, but they just lost, 42-7, to Wisconsin, a team so bad that they fired a head coach that was just a few years past several Big Ten West titles. What games should you include in your wagering this week? Check out our list.
NCAA News: Top 5 Games to Bet in Week 7
→ Thursday, October 13
Baylor Bears (-3.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
(7:00 pm ET, FS1)
When these teams met in 2021, Baylor was a one-point favorite at home but ended up rolling, 45-20. In Big 12 play this year, the Bears are 1-1 after a win at Iowa State, followed by a loss at home to Oklahoma State. The Baylor running game has been productive, averaging 188.2 yards per game. Richard Reese has been the top tailback, picking up 5.6 yards per carry and scoring seven touchdowns. Blake Shapen has thrown for 248.4 yards per game, good for 75th in the nation, with nine touchdown passes and three interceptions. On defense, linebacker Bryson Jackson leads the team with two sacks, and the Bears have ten overall.
West Virginia is 0-2 in Big 12 play after losing at home to Kansas in overtime and then losing at Texas on October 1. Quarterback J.T. Daniels is making the most of his third home in five years, with an 8:2 TD:INT ratio and throwing for 266.6 yards per game. The rushing game is led by C.J. Donaldson, who has averaged 6.9 yards per carry and found the end zone six times. The West Virginia defense has struggled this year, but the team has had the nation’s 25th toughest schedule to this point. They are 4-1-1 in their last six home contents against teams with records above .500. I see the Mountaineers keeping this tight at home in prime time. West Virginia to cover.
→ Saturday, October 15
#19 Kansas Jayhawks (+7) at Oklahoma Sooners
(12:00 pm ET, ESPN2)
What do Kansas and Oklahoma have in common? They both saw their starting quarterbacks go down via injury against TCU the last two weeks. Oklahoma should have Dillon Gabriel (concussion protocol) back, while Kansas signal-caller Jalon Daniels is still listed as doubtful for Saturday’s game. Kansas’ defense has been iffy, permitting 42 at West Virginia, 30 against Houston and 27 against Duke. Their offense was able to outscore all three teams, but the bill came due against TCU.
Oklahoma has taken bad beatings the last two weeks, losing by 31 at TCU and then taking a 49-0 haymaker from Texas at the Cotton Bowl last week. With Dillon Gabriel back, the Sooners should be able to move the ball. Kansas showed they could move the ball on TCU even with their backup quarterback, but I see the Sooners’ defense showing a little more starch at home. But can they win by a touchdown? Kansas to cover.
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7) at #6 Tennessee Volunteers
(3:30 pm ET, CBS)
Tennessee looks to start a year 6-0 for the first time in 24 years, while Alabama looks to start 7-0 for the sixth time in the last seven campaigns. Alabama has won five of their last six games away from Tuscaloosa, dating back to their upset loss at Texas A&M last year. Last week, the Tide beat Texas A&M at home despite using backup quarterback Jalen Milroe. We don’t know yet if Bryce Young will be able to return; he separated his shoulder against Arkansas on October 1. Nick Saban was cryptic on Wednesday, telling reporters only that Young has made “progress.”
Tennessee has a Heisman Trophy candidate of its own in quarterback Hendon Hooker (70% completion rate, 1,432 yards in five games, 10 TD, 0 INT). On the ground, Jaylen Wright has led the Volunteers with 315 yards and four scores. The defense has been stingy, permitting just 17.8 points per game. Tennessee has covered just twice in their last seven SEC games, though, and Alabama has covered in nine of their last ten trips to Knoxville. Right now, I’m taking Alabama to win and cover, but that will change if Young cannot go.
LSU Tigers (+3) at Florida Gators
(7:00 pm ET, ESPN)
LSU has improved since a Week 1 loss to Florida State, winning four in a row, including impressive SEC wins over Mississippi State and Auburn. However, they took a 40-13 beating from Tennessee this past week. Florida impressed with a season-opening win over Utah, and they only lost to Tennessee by five at home. However, they only beat South Florida by three, so defense could be an issue. They did beat Missouri by seven, but they have only covered twice in their last nine home games and three times in their last 13 games overall. LSU has only covered once in their last five road games, but they seem to be on more of an uptick. LSU to cover.
Stanford Cardinal (+14.5) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
(7:30 pm ET, NBC Peacock)
The fact that you have to subscribe to a streaming service to watch this game shows you how low both of the teams in this storied rivalry have sunk. Stanford has lost four in a row – and five straight away from home. The major problems come on defense, as the Cardinal permit 34 points per game. Notre Dame started the year with an 11-point loss at Ohio State, which was respectable, but then they lost at home to Sun Belt foe Marshall. They bounced back with a home win over Cal, a win at North Carolina and a win over BYU in Las Vegas, so they seem to be back on track. Can they beat Stanford by more than two touchdowns, though? Stanford beat FCS foe Colgate in their opener by 31, but then they lost to USC at home. After the bye, they lost at Washington and Oregon by a combined 36 points. They almost beat Oregon State at home but gave up a last-minute drive to fall by one. Notre Dame is improving week by week, while Stanford just has too many questions to answer. Notre Dame to win and cover.
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