As we approach the start of the 2021 college football season, we see the usual favorites at the top of the sports betting odds list to win the national championship, such as Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Given the terrific recruiting classes that the top schools pull in each season, it makes sense that it would be difficult to expect much change at the very top of the sport. However, within each conference, there are teams that are overvalued on the basis of prior play — or on the basis of rosters on paper, rather than results from those same coaching staffs with prior rosters. As a result, there is some room for bettors to make money — and for others to lose money if they use the wrong factors in choosing their wagers.
Take a look at some of the more overrated teams in college football this season.
NCAA News: Top Ranked Teams Likely to Disappoint Bettors in 2021
University of Texas
The Longhorns are ranked #21 in the nation in ESPN’s preseason rankings despite the fact that longtime quarterback Sam Ehlinger is now a member of the Indianapolis Colts. Defensive tackle Ta’Quon Graham and defensive end Joseph Ossai were major leaders in the Texas defense a year ago, and they are in the NFL as well. Even with those stalwarts on the roster, the Longhorns lost three conference games in 2020 and needed overtime to edge out Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Longhorns have not beaten Iowa State in three years, and even TCU has beaten Texas seven times in nine meetings since coming to the Big 12. The reviews of the Longhorn culture is one of entitlement rather than hard work, a culture that no coach since Mack Brown has been able to drive out of the building long enough for the team to work hard.
USC
The Trojans sit at #13 in ESPN’s preseason poll. They did go 5-1 last season, rolling to the Pac-12 Championship, where they fell to Oregon in a loss that was considered, at least in some circles, to be an upset. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is now with the Detroit Lions, and tailback Stephen Carr, who rumbled for over 1,300 yards in 2020, transferred to Indiana. The Trojans open 2021 with the San Jose State Spartans, a tricky team from the Mountain West Conference who could deliver an early haymaker to the Trojans’ ranking — let alone any thought of a College Football Playoff berth. Without replacing those playmakers, the Trojans are likely to let their fans — and their bettors — down.
North Carolina
The fact that the Tar Heels are presented as the great hope to knock off Clemson in the ACC tells us how far the Tigers sit above the rest of the conference. Yes, Sam Howell returns at quarterback, and he could be part of the Heisman Trophy conversation. However, tailback Javonte Williams is now with the Denver Broncos, along with three other skill players from the North Carolina offense. Even with those players on the squad, North Carolina lost to both Virginia and Florida State in conference play — and neither of those schools were contenders.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions started 2020 0-5 before winning four straight. The team has won 11 games three times under James Franklin — and finished in the top ten all three times. Even with that dreadful record, Penn State lost linebacker Odafe Oweh and Micah Parsons in the first round of the NFL draft. Quarterback Sean Clifford has not done well leading the Penn State offense consistently. With games against Auburn and Wisconsin in September, the team could easily have two losses — if not more — going into their meeting with Ohio State.
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