Top Picks for College Football: Few factors play as much havoc in the sports betting world as the impact of rivalries on college football games.
The week of Thanksgiving has been known as Rivalry Week in college football for far longer than we’ve had things like the College Football Playoff or even the BCS Championship.
Annual rivalry games like the “Palmetto Bowl” and “Egg Bowl” between schools in the same state, such as South Carolina vs. Clemson and Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, showcase intense competition and passion that goes beyond skill and coaching, determined by pure determination on the football field.
This year, Michigan and Ohio State meet in the latest installation of “The Game,” one of the sport’s oldest rivalries.
The Wolverines are nowhere near national championship caliber this season, but they still will get up for this trip to Columbus.
This year’s Iron Bowl features an 8-3 Alabama team that is on the edge of elimination from the College Football Playoff already – and the Auburn Tigers, who upset Texas A&M last week in overtime, would love to drive that nail into their rival’s coffin.
We also have the renewal of The Lone Star Showdown, as Texas A&M will host Texas to renew a rivalry that started in 1894 and was thought to have died in 2011.
Top Picks for College Football Week 14 | NCAAF Rivalries Weekend
Read on to get our predictions for each matchup.
Michigan Wolverines (+20.5) at Ohio State Buckeyes (O/U 43.5)
When: Saturday, November 30, 12:00 pm ET, FOX
NCAAF Game Line: Michigan +870 / Ohio State -1786
Game Pick: Wolverines to cover
This rivalry dates back to 1897 and is based on an actual war – the Toledo War, which the then-territories of Michigan and Ohio fought between 1835 and 1836 over disputed borderlines. The fight didn’t involve actual combat, but was instead a fight over commercial land and development – already a thing in American politics in the early nineteenth century. The outcome of this game has led to spoiled CFP and national championship dreams in the past, but the expansion of the playoff to 12 teams makes this game slightly less important from that perspective. The rivalry, though, remains intact.
Michigan has won the last three installments of this rivalry, but this year they are just 6-5 in the first year of Sherrone Moore’s coaching stint. The Wolverines won’t be in the CFP this year, but they could make Ohio State’s life a lot more difficult with a win. Can Michigan cover? Yes. They have a stout defensive line that could make it hard for Ohio State to move the ball quickly. The Buckeyes are missing two starters on their O-line, which will make it harder for them to run the ball and to protect quarterback Will Howard. Ohio State should come in with plenty of motivation and will have the home crowd behind them, but that doesn’t mean that much in a rivalry game.
^Auburn Tigers (+11.5) at Alabama Crimson Tide (O/U 52.5)
When: Saturday, November 30, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
NCAAF Game Line: Auburn +300 / Alabama -400
Top Picks for College Football: Tigers to cover
The Iron Bowl has produced some finishes that tell sports bettors to throw out the win-loss records. In 2013, the famed “Kick Six” game saw Alabama line up for what would have been a game-winning field goal from 57 yards. Both teams were ranked in the top five, and they were both in the SEC West, so they were playing for an SEC Championship – and potentially a then-BCS National Championship berth. The kick was short, and Chris Davis was waiting for Auburn beneath the goal posts. He caught the kick and took it all the way back, winning on the last play of the game.
However, if you look at the history of this rivalry, the better team almost always wins this game at home. The game was played at a neutral site until recent years; since then, Alabama has gone 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread at home. On the road, they’ve gone 6-3 straight up (but just 3-6 against the spread). In these 19 meetings with the series as a true home-and-home, Alabama has gone 14-5 straight up when favored to win. Interestingly, though, Auburn’s Jordan-Hare Stadium has not been a good place for either team to cover the spread as a favorite. Auburn’s defense is fairly porous, but Alabama’s has been as well, especially on the road.
^Texas Longhorns (-5) at Texas A&M Aggies (O/U 49)
When: Saturday, November 30, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
NCAAF Game Line: Texas A&M +179 / Texas -224
Game Pick: Aggies to cover
Texas has won 10 straight true road games under head coach Steve Sarkisian. No other FBS team has a longer active streak. However, Kyle Field is a raucous road environment. You know that Quinn Ewers saw Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne burn the Aggies time and time again down the field – Thorne threw for 301 yards overall, but 230 of those yards came on just six catches. Ewers is just 9 of 31 on throws of at least 20 air yards this season, according to TruMedia. He has 271 passing yards on throws of that length, which ranks only 121st among FBS quarterbacks. Also, the Longhorns only have touchdowns on 53% of their trips into the red zone when playing ranked teams. This is a week when they need touchdowns, not field goals.
Can the Aggies pressure Quinn Ewers? Then they’ll have a chance. In the Longhorns’ loss to Georgia, the Bulldogs pressured Longhorn quarterbacks on 39% of their dropbacks. Ewers went just 5 of 13 for 46 yards in those situations. He only completed 44.4% of his attempts that had at least five air yards. Last week, Ewers was 0 for 10 on throws into tight coverage. Arkansas used three safeties against Texas, and Ewers only had 176 passing yards. In the first half, he went just 1 of 2 for negative-8 yards and took three sacks when pressured in that game. The Aggies really need their defense to show up. At cavernous Kyle Field, with the 12th Man, roaring against Texas for the first time in 13 years, that defense will show up.
^Here's a look at your full set of College Football Playoff selection committee rankings for games played through Saturday, November 23.
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 27, 2024
Where does your team rank as we head into the holiday and rivalry weekend?#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/SkE4lhpFNT
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