Middle-tier teams from the SEC and the Big Ten square off on Thursday in Nashville at the 23rd Music City Bowl. These teams have only met once, back in 1979, when Purdue edged Tennessee by five in the Bluebonnet Bowl. Tennessee (7-5, 4-4 SEC) saw its offense explode under first-year head coach Josh Heupel, exceeding the low expectations that surrounded the team at the start of the year. Purdue (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) also came in with low expectations but posted their first eight-win season in 15 years. The Boilermakers knocked off two teams ranked in the top three when they met them (Michigan State and Iowa) and look to pick up a ninth win.
Check out our college football betting preview of this high-octane matchup.
NCAAF Preview: TransPerfect Music City Bowl Preview (Thursday, December 30)
Tennessee Volunteers (7-5) vs Purdue Boilermakers (8-4)
When: Thursday, December 30, 2021, 3:00 pm ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
TV: ESPN
Radio: No National Broadcast
Live Stream: Hulu
NCAAF Odds: Tennessee -6 / O/U 64.5 // Tennessee -220 / Purdue +180
Why should you bet on the Volunteers?
Under Josh Heupel, the Volunteers run a spread offense that picked up 459.0 yards per game 15th in the nation) and scored 38.8 points per game (ninth overall). The catalyst is quarterback Hendon Hooker, who snagged the starting job earlier this season and has posted an electric 26:3 TD:INT ratio, throwing for 2,567 yards and completing 69 percent of his passes. His aggregate passer rating (182.2) leads all SEC quarterbacks (including Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ole Miss’ Matt Corral). Wideouts Cedric Tillman and Velus Jones Jr have been his top targets, and Tillman has averaged 122 receiving yards per game over the last six contests, catching at least one touchdown in each of those games. Jones came in third in the SEC for all-purpose yards with 1,515 and was the top punt returner in the nation, gaining 16 yards per return.
How did this team lose five games, you ask? Well, pass protection was a problem. Tennessee permitted 42 sacks during the regular season, the highest number in the SEC, and their best blocker on the O-line, Cade Mays, is doubtful for the bowl game. However, Purdue will not have their top defensive star and pass rusher, as George Karlaftis has opted out for the draft. Cornerback Dedrick Mackey is also out for Purdue, which should help the Volunteers’ cause. Even so, the Boilermakers snagged 13 picks during the regular season – which was the same number of touchdown passes they allowed. If the passing game bogs down, Tennessee ran for 212 yards per game, 19th in the nation. They did lose tailback Tiyon Evans to the transfer portal, but Jabari Small and Jayen Wright should be able to fill the gap against a Purdue rushing defense that permitted 142.6 yards per game on the ground (56th among FBS teams).
Why should you put your money on the Boilermakers?
Purdue’s offense also likes to run and gun – hence the high point total for this game. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell keys an attack that puts up 423.4 yards and 27.5 points per contest. The passing game is eighth in the nation, gaining 340.2 yards per contest. O’Connell completed 73.5 percent of his passes, leading the Big Ten, gaining 3,178 yards and posting a 28:8 TD:INT ratio. In the last four games of the regular season, that completion percentage climbedf to 77, and he threw 14 touchdown passes without a pick.
Tennessee has a fairly porous pass defense, permitting 251.4 yards per contest. Cornerback Alontae Taylor opted out for the upcoming draft, but so did David Bell, Purdue’s first-team All-Americand and the Receiver of the Year in the Big Ten. Starting tackle Greg Long is also likely to miss the game. O’Connell will be looking for T.J. Sheffield and Jackson Anthrop, along with tight end Payne Durham. The hope for Purdue is that the passing game will work without some of their best skill players, because their running attack only picks up 2.78 yards per carry, dead last among FBS schools.
Final Score and Betting Prediction
Tennessee has more balance on offense than Purdue, and their holes in the skill positions are not as many – and not as crucial. I see the Volunteers scoring on some quick-strike plays and blitzing Purdue’s passing game into submission. I predict a final score of Tennessee 41, Purdue 30.
TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs Purdue: Bet the Game Today
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