Updated College Football Title Odds (November 9th)

There wasn’t much of a change atop the NCAA Football futures odds to make the 2016-17 college football playoff and win the coveted National Championship following Week 10’s games. This was largely based on the fact that the Halloween Weekend went rather smoothly for the top-ranked teams in the nation, as 8 of the top-10 teams from last week won their games, with the exceptions being the then-#4 Texas A&M—who suffered an upset at Mississippi State—and then-#10 Nebraska—who got annihilated by the sixth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. Here is an updated look at the latest college football championship odds as we enter Week 11.

Updated College Football Title Odds (November 9th)

How do the top four teams in the @CFBPlayoff rankings compare? Take a look: https://t.co/ofmCzEYcrK pic.twitter.com/7qBUQgsuTB

— NCAA Football (@NCAAFootball) November 9, 2016

College Football Title Best Favorite Picks: Alabama, Clemson and Washington

The Tide remained as odds-on favorites to repeat as National Champs, thanks to their hard-earned 10-0 shutout victory over LSU in a defense-first slugfest at the Death Valley last Saturday. Even if Bama loses to Auburn in their lone remaining biggest fixture, which we don’t see happening anyway at the Bryant–Denny Stadium, the Tide should be a hot favorite to make the playoffs, as they will most likely pummel whomever they meet in the SEC Championship game. Like Bama, Clemson is a near-sure bet to make the playoffs for the second straight season, considering the Tigers’ remaining schedule constitutes soft opponents in Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and South Carolina. And with quality wins over the likes of Auburn, Louisville and Florida State, plus last week’s 54-0 shutout over Syracuse despite Deshaun Watson playing just one half; it will take a galactic miracle for Clemson to miss the playoffs. With A&M losing to Mississippi State, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that we have Washington as a solid favorite pick. Sure, the Huskies didn’t exactly breeze through the Utah Utes in their 31-24 win, but winning in Salt Lake City is a big deal in itself, especially since Washington was playing against a very good Utah team. Plus, even Alabama struggled offensively at LSU, while Clemson wasn’t convincing at Auburn (19-13 win) and barely got past the likes of Troy (30-24 win), NC State (24-17 win) and Florida State (37-34 win), so Washington should surely get a similar pass. More than that, Washington could very easily finish the season unbeaten if it can take care of its two winnable home games against USC and Arizona State before closing the season with a potential résumé-boosting victory at Washington State. Add that to the Jake Browning-led blowout wins that litter UW’s undefeated season so far, you’d be hard-done to get a better pick than the Huskies for a playoff spot, especially if you consider t the murky situation that faces Michigan and Ohio State, as is explained below.

College Football Title Best Smart Picks: Michigan and Ohio State

While most people are ready to anoint Michigan as Big Ten’s representative in the playoffs, we’d advice a bit of some caution regarding going fully on the Wolverines, considering the Buckeyes are far from out of the Big Ten Championship contention. The Wolverines, led by sneaky Heisman contender Jabril Peppers, have dismantled all but one of their opponents this season. And it just so happens that the lone game in which they didn’t win via a blowout was the 14-7 home victory against then-#8 Wisconsin, who are also coincidentally the only ranked team Michigan has played so far. The Buckeyes, on the other hand, did suffer that shocking loss to the currently ranked Penn State Nittany Lions, but have three wins over ranked opponents—at Oklahoma, at Wisconsin and vs. Nebraska—with two of those three wins being blowouts, including the historic 62-3 victory over the 10th-ranked Cornhuskers last week. With such a résumé, you’ve got to wonder if the Wolverines will be able to match up to the Buckeyes in their regular-season finale at the Ohio Stadium in what promises to be the biggest game of the season. Assuming both Ohio State and Michigan ace their remaining games of the season ahead of this thriller, it will be as simple as– whoever wins the Michigan @ Ohio State contest will match on to the Big Ten Championship game as the East division representative. And with that comes a shot at the CFP as an undefeated team (in Michigan’s case) or a strong one-loss team (in Ohio State’s case), provided the winner comes out on top in the Big Ten Championship game. So, simply put, both OU and Michigan are alive in the playoff hunt, and if you asked me, I’d be willing to side with the more battle-tested Bucks, who will be getting to host the All-important season-finale in their backyard. Don’t write off Jim Harbaugh from pulling another rabbit out of his hat just yet, though.

College Football Title Best Longshot Picks: Louisville and Wisconsin

While Lamar Jackson is now all but a lock for the Heisman Trophy, the same can’t be said of his team’s chances to make the playoffs. Several pieces would have to fall in place, including but not limited to a loss for Michigan and/or another loss for Ohio State, or a loss for Washington, or a loss for Clemson, or a loss for Alabama. And from the current outlook of things, we probably won’t be having that many losses before the end of the season. Still, this is football and anything can happen, so maybe Jackson and the Cardinals may get lucky and sneak into the playoffs if some dominoes fall in their favor. The Badgers are the other team with good longshot NCAA Football odds to contend for the national title. For one, Wisconsin’s two losses came at Michigan and Ohio State, both by just 7 points, which is nothing to be ashamed about if you factor in the quality of those two teams. Meanwhile, the Badgers—despite being in a three-way tie with Nebraska and Minnesota in the Big Ten West at 7-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play—own a tiebreak advantage over the Cornhuskers whom they beat 23-17 three weeks ago. And the date with Minnesota at the end of the regular season should help them sort out the Golden Gophers issue, assuming Minnesota somehow manages to escape Week 11’s meeting at Nebraska with a win. With that in mind, winning the Big Ten West and playing the Big Ten Championship game—where they can upset Michigan or Ohio State—could vault them into the playoff conversation as a strong two-loss team, particularly if any of the likes of Alabama, Clemson, Washington and Louisville startle before the end the regular season.

#Worthy Mentions

Auburn: Even if they beat Alabama, their two-loss résumé will still place them behind Alabama in the SEC West, meaning no championship game and virtually no chance at the playoffs. And no way Alabama will be taking Mississippi State lightly (after the Bulldogs messed up the Aggies last week) or dropping a shocker to Chattanooga with the playoff at stake. Oklahoma: With #17 Baylor, #20 West Virginia and #18 Oklahoma State in their remaining schedule, the Sooners have a chance to build a strong postseason case and climb up the playoff standings. Here’s the problem, though, we don’t see OU going through these three teams unbeaten. And with three losses, Oklahoma should be pretty much out of the playoffs. But even if they win out, having two losses will probably not be enough, especially if Michigan, Louisville, Washington and Ohio State (who beat Oklahoma early in the season) finish the season as strong one-loss or two-loss teams. At best, therefore, Oklahoma—just like Auburn—will most likely end up playing in a meaningful bowl game, but fall short of the playoff.