The bracket for the first 12-team College Football Playoff is set with the odds to Win the National Championship. Whether you think Alabama or Ole Miss should have gotten in because the SEC is that much better than every other conference in the nation, the committee chose otherwise.
One wrinkle that has shown up is that the top seed, the Oregon Ducks, has a tougher road to the championship than a normal one-seed would have.
The reason for this is that the top four seeds – Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State – are not the top four teams in the rankings.
The committee gave those top seeds, which come with byes, to the four highest-ranked conference champions.
Boise State was ranked ninth, and Arizona State was ranked 12th. That pushes Ohio State down to the eight-seed, but they are not the eighth-ranked team in the nation. Instead, they are ranked sixth, and Tennessee is ranked seventh.
So Oregon, who went 13-0 and won the Big Ten Championship Game, might have to beat Ohio State, Texas and Georgia to win it all. That’s not the easy path that a top seed should normally expect, even with that first-round bye.
Let’s look at the sports betting odds for each team to win the championship, along with some thoughts about the road ahead.
NCAAF Odds to Win the National Championship for 2024/25 Season
- Oregon +310
- Georgia +320
- Texas +350
- Ohio State +400
- Penn State +560
- Notre Dame +830
- Tennessee +2300
- Clemson +3300
- SMU +3400
- Indiana +4000
- Arizona State +4400
- Boise State +4700
First Round
- (9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
- (12) Clemson at (5) Texas
- (11) SMU at (6) Penn State
- (10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
Quarterfinals
- Tennessee-Ohio State winner vs (1) Oregon
- Clemson-Texas winner vs (4) Arizona State
- SMU-Penn State winner vs (3) Boise State
- Indiana-Notre Dame winner vs (2) Georgia
Semifinals
- Oregon-Tennessee/Ohio State winner vs Arizona State-Clemson/Texas winner
- Boise State-SMU/Penn State winner vs Georgia-Indiana/Notre Dame winner
College Football Championship
Semifinal Winners
^Betting Analysis
So who has the easiest path? Well, let’s look at fifth-seeded Texas and sixth-seeded Penn State. They have an extra game to play, but if they beat Clemson and SMU, respectively, at home next weekend, then they would meet Boise State and Arizona State in the quarterfinals. Those teams are ranked well below the likes of Ohio State and Tennessee.
A solution for next year, when the CFP renews its contract, is to guarantee the five highest-ranked conference champions places in the bracket without assigning them guaranteed seeds. For this year, though, things are definitely tougher for the Ducks than they are for second-seeded Georgia, who awaits either Indiana (who got drilled by Ohio State) or Notre Dame (who lost to Northern Illinois in Week 2) and will then either see Boise State, SMU, or Penn State, who lost to both Oregon and Ohio State.
The first round is different from the last three because these games happen on college campuses. Instead of having fan bases travel from all over the nation, these games will have students packed into the seats, without the same corporate atmosphere that makes the bigger bowl games a lot quieter. These won’t be indoor games, either – South Bend, Columbus and State College are all cold-weather places with outdoor stadiums. So what can we expect?
^Indiana (+7.5) at Notre Dame
When: Friday, December 20, 8:00 pm ET, ABC/ESPN
Because these schools are so close, the Hoosiers could have a good bit of representation in the stadium that sits below Touchdown Jesus. They also have Kurtis Rourke at quarterback, and while Ohio State took them to the cleaners, that was the only game the Hoosiers lost. They bounced back by throttling Purdue, 66-0, in their regular-season finale. Likewise, they beat Michigan State by 37 points on the road. Furthermore, they beat Washington by 14 and Nebraska by 49. They have a high-octane offense that the Irish could struggle to contain. This matchup is a bit under the radar with all the media attention focusing on the top seeds and SEC discontent, but having the Hoosiers win here wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Championship Pick: Hoosiers to cover.
^SMU (+8.5) at Penn State
When: Saturday, December 21, 12:00 pm ET, TNT
SMU came out nervous against Clemson and found themselves down 14-0 before the ACC Championship was six minutes old. They regrouped, came back, and tied the game in the last minute of regulation, 31-31, but sloppy kickoff coverage and pass defense gave the Tigers a shot at a long field goal to win it, and they made it. SMU brings tempo on offense, and Penn State struggles with that on defense. The Nittany Lions do have a fierce pass rush, but so do a lot of the other teams SMU has played this year. The Mustangs are getting all the ACC disrespect for this matchup, but that’s why we play the games. Before Nick Saban was up in arms about Alabama missing the CFP, he told us that SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings was the most underrated signal-caller in the game. Is he right? We believe so.
Championship Pick: Mustangs to cover.
^Clemson (+11) at Texas
When: Saturday, December 21, 4:00 pm ET, TNT
Is Texas really going to run Clemson out of Austin on Saturday afternoon? Yes, Clemson lost at home to Louisville and South Carolina. They have physical lines on both offense and defense. They have a solid running game, and Cade Klubnik is elite when it comes to ball security. Is the Texas defense good enough to beat Clemson by more than a touchdown and a half? After we saw Clemson let SMU get off the mat and almost come back to win in the ACC Championship, does that mean that Clemson is that bad – or that SMU is that good? Texas has a lot of frustration to work out after losing again to Georgia, and Clemson did benefit from SMU nerves in the opening minutes of the ACC Championship.
Championship Pick: Longhorns to win and cover.
^Tennessee (+7.5) at Ohio State
When: Saturday, December 21, 8:00 pm ET, ABC/ESPN
Tennessee does have a devastating pass rush. However, I still expect the Buckeye offense to take more chances than it did in the loss to Michigan, when Ryan Day tried to grind out a slow, methodical win and had the Wolverines throw enough sand in the gears to wreck that plan. Expect a tempo approach from the Buckeyes – and expect Tennessee to struggle to keep up. Can the Buckeye defense slow down Tennessee? That’s where things get interesting. The Buckeyes, like Texas, are another angry team playing at home after a frustrating loss, which is why the Buckeyes should roll.
Championship Pick: Buckeyes to win and cover.
^Take a look at the full and final College Football Playoff selection committee rankings upon completion of the 2024 regular season!#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/4YOjBQnGCx
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) December 8, 2024
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Odds to Win the National Championship for 2024/2025
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