Conference Championship Betting Picks | Now that Rivalry Week has come and gone in college football, it’s time for the conference championship games.
This year, for the first time, there is a 12-team bracket waiting to be filled for the chance to win the FBS national championship.
The top five ranked conference championships are guaranteed slots in the bracket – with the top four seeds given to the top four champions in the rankings, who receive a first-round bye.
Let’s take a look at some sports betting picks for this coming weekend’s showdowns.
Top Conference Championship Betting Picks for 2024/25 Season
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (+4) vs Boise State Broncos (O/U 57.5)
Mountain West Conference Championship
When: Friday, December 6
Conference Pick: Broncos to win and cover
Boise State won the regular-season matchup with UNLV, but only by a 29-24 score. UNLV has a high-flying offense that picks up 434 yards and scores 38.7 points per game. Quarterback Matthew Sluka left the team, but Hajj-Malik Williams took over quite nicely, throwing 17 touchdown passes against just four picks and completing 64.1% of his passes.
His top receiver has been Ricky White III (1,020 yards, 11 touchdowns) who causes matchup problems every week. Williams has also run for 768 yards and nine scores, and tailback Jai’Den Thomas is the top runner with 833 yards and nine scores. Their scoring defense (22 points per game) leads the Mountain West, but their rushing defense is much better than their passing defense.
Boise State’s offense runs through Ashton Jeanty, who has 2,288 rushing yards and 28 scores on just 312 carries, making him one of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy. The Rebels were able to bottle him up to a certain degree in their first matchup, and the fact that the Broncos won anyway is testament to their versatility. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has an elite 21:3 TD:INT ratio with 2,556 passing yards and a 61.7% completion rate. Receiver Cameron Camper has led the team with 811 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The defense hasn’t had to work that hard because of the productivity of the offense. They have allowed 258.3 yards per game through the air.
^Iowa State Cyclones (+2) vs Arizona State Sun Devils (O/U 49.5)
Big 12 Championship
When: Saturday, December 7
Conference Pick: Cyclones to cover
The Big 12 is only going to get one team into the College Football Playoff, so this championship is a true elimination game. Both teams come in with identical 10-2 overall records and 7-2 conference records. Iowa State has won three games in a row, including a 29-21 squeaker over Kansas State in the 2024 edition of Farmageddon. Arizona State has a five-game winning streak, including a 49-7 crushing of Arizona during Rivalry Week.
These teams have never met. Iowa has made one Big 12 Championship appearance, losing their title shot in 2020. Arizona State has not appeared in a conference championship since 2013, when they lost the Pac-12 title to Stanford. Iowa State has a plucky quarterback in Rocco Becht, who has thrown for 3,021 and 20 touchdowns with just eight picks. He has also run for 272 yards and seven scores. Tailbacks Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III have combined for 1,165 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.
Their defense is 24th in the nation in points permitted per game and 29th in yards permitted per game. The Sun Devils have Sam Leavitt running the offense with a quality 21:5 TD:INT ratio, but his top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is questionable after a season with 1,101 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
^Georgia Bulldogs (+2.5) vs Texas Longhorns (O/U 49.5)
SEC Championship
When: Saturday, December 7
Conference Pick: Georgia to cover
This game opened as a Pick’em before sliding in Texas’ direction. This is surprising given how thoroughly the Bulldogs dominated the Longhorns on the road in their regular-season meeting. The Georgia defense, led by Daylen Everette and Jalon Walker, shut down two of the sport’s best quarterbacks in Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. Since then, though, Georgia lost to Ole Miss and needed a lot of luck (and a very shaky pass interference penalty) to get by Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale. In contrast, Texas reeled off five straight wins, four of them coming by double digits.
Which team has more to lose in Saturday’s game, though? Texas comes in as the 2-seed in the CFP standings. If they lose to Georgia, they would lose that first-round bye, but would they have to go on the round to the quarterfinal round? That’s doubtful. However, a third loss for Georgia could easily slide them down somewhere between the 9-seed and the 12-seed, which means a road game in that quarterfinal round. On the road, the Bulldogs have been quite fragile; at home, they have just one loss since the beginning of the 2017 season. I think the Bulldogs come in with more to fight for.
^Clemson Tigers (+2.5) vs SMU Mustangs (O/U 55.5)
ACC Championship
When: Saturday, December 7
Conference Pick: Mustangs to win and cover
This game opened at Clemson -2 before shifting heavily in the Mustangs’ direction. The Tigers have lost three games this season – a 34-3 rout in Week 1 against Georgia, a 33-21 home defeat against Louisville, and a 17-14 Rivalry Week loss at home to South Carolina. They only advanced to the ACC Championship because Miami could not keep Syracuse from scoring at will and lost in their regular season finale. They do have a terrific rushing offense, ranking tenth in the nation in rush success rate. When opposing teams have done well against SMU, they have done so with solid O-line play and a ground game, as we saw in SMU’s loss to BYU and their close games against Duke and Boston College.
SMU had a perfect 8-0 record in ACC play, but they didn’t see Miami or Clemson, their top competitors for the top spot. They also didn’t see Syracuse, who finished 9-3 and would have had a playoff argument if they hadn’t lost to Stanford at home. SMU’s offense is seventh in the nation in EPA per drop back and yards per successful drop back. Their rushing game is just 115th in the nation in yards after contact (2.16), so the O-line will need to open some holes against Clemson. On defense, they are 14th in the nation in opposing QBR allowed and eighth in 0.7 yards before contact allowed. Clemson struggles to move the ball on offense – they move the ball against the Mustangs?
^Penn State Nittany Lions (+3.5) vs Oregon Ducks (O/U 49.5)
Big Ten Championship
When: Saturday, December 7
Conference Pick: Ducks to win and cover
Very few sports observers expected this matchup, as Ohio State was heavily favored to take down Michigan at home during Rivalry Week. The Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State during the regular season, 20-13, their only setback of the whole season. They almost lost at Minnesota on November 23 but finished the regular season with an emphatic 44-7 trouncing of the Maryland Terrapins. They’ll play Oregon for the first time since 1994, when Penn State beat the Ducks by 18 points in the Rose Bowl.
Penn State’s offense has hummed under quarterback Drew Allar (71.6% pass completion rate, 18 TD:5 INT ratio). The Nittany Lions could be even more high-flying if they got more production from their wide receivers. Tailbacks Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton have combined for 1,431 yards and a dozen touchdowns. However, they don’t have the receiving playmakers to make the Oregon secondary worry – at least not so far.
Oregon has scored 35.2 points per game, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel has completed 73.5% of his passes and thrown 24 touchdown passes with only six interceptions. Receivers Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart have combined for 1,298 yards and 14 touchdowns, and tailback Jordan James has 1,166 yards and 13 touchdown passes. Penn State’s defense is the best that Oregon has faced since they played the Buckeyes. The Ducks’ defense will be able to get after Drew Allar and force him into mistakes.
^POLL ALERT: Oregon remains No. 1 in AP Top 25 after close call, Notre Dame and Alabama each jump two spots, Georgia back in top 10.
— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) November 17, 2024
Full poll: https://t.co/7dTTUiSC1j pic.twitter.com/nASsBD26MR
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