College Football Betting Top Five: The oddity of Week Zero college football has come and gone. On most campuses, school hasn’t started in the fourth weekend of August, but a few games still hop onto the schedule. Sometimes it’s for a unique neutral-site game, such as the annual matchup in Dublin, Ireland.
Occasionally it’s to fill a last-second need for a game, such as SMU’s showdown with Nevada last week, scheduled hastily when Baylor decided to back out of their game with SMU.
Sometimes it’s for events like the FCS showcase. We saw Georgia Tech knock off Florida State in a crazy upset across the Atlantic, and we saw SMU avoid what would have been a draining upset by scoring 16 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to escape Nevada with a win.
College Football Betting Top Five Games from Week 1
Going into Week 1, look at the top five matchups from a sports betting point of view.
#8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-8.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers (O/U 51.5)
When: Saturday, August 31, 12:00 pm ET, FOX
We’re hearing that Penn State has a revamped offense. They brought in Andy Kotelnicki, formerly the co-OC at Kansas State, to be the OC in Happy Valley. His biggest assignment is to boost the play from quarterback Drew Allar.
Allar seems like he has a really high ceiling, but in losses to Ole Miss, Ohio State and Michigan in 2023, he completed fewer than half of his passes.
Former Hoosiers coach Tom Allen is now the DC after Manny Diaz took his talents to Duke. Four of the top five tacklers on the roster last year are back, led by defensive end Abdul Carter.
The Mountaineers went 9-4 last year, and the offense, which scored over 31 points a game last year, has most of its starters back, including quarterback Garrett Greene and tailbacks Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson.
West Virginia is a tough road environment with some raucous fans, and the Mountaineers love to post upsets in Morgantown.
College Football Pick: West Virginia to cover.
^#19 Miami Hurricanes (-2.5) at Florida Gators (O/U 54.5)
When: Saturday, August 31, 3:30 pm ET, ABC
This ACC-SEC showdown renews one of the great in-state rivalries. The Hurricanes brought in all kinds of talent through the transfer portal, including quarterback Cam Ward, who transferred across the nation from Washington State.
If Florida State’s loss to Georgia really showed some flaws in their system, then Miami could enter September with a lead in the conference standings.
Florida is really fighting for bowl eligibility this year, so each win matters. They have offensive and defensive talent, but their schedule is grueling – they finish against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State.
A win for the Gators in the opener would greatly improve their odds of picking up a winning season for the first time in four years.
NCAAF Pick: Miami to win and cover.
^#7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+3) at #20 Texas A&M Aggies (O/U 46.5)
When: Saturday, August 31, 7:30 pm ET, ABC
Notre Dame beat Florida State on the road in their 2021 opener and prevailed in overtime. Two years ago, they went to Ohio State for their opener, so they’re not afraid of big-time starts to the season.
Quarterback Riley Leonard makes his Notre Dame debut after transferring from Duke, where he had a terrific 2022 campaign before seeing injuries mar his 2023 performance.
The Notre Dame wide receiver corps has improved, so this passing offense should show some growth as well. Their biggest problems come up front, as three starters from last year have to be replaced.
Texas A&M has a defense with a lot of new talent, including edge rusher Nic Scourton (Purdue), Solomon DeShields (Pitt) and Jaydon Hill (Florida).
Connor Weigman will return at quarterback after a season limited to just four games due to a foot injury.
College Football Pick: Notre Dame to cover.
^#13 LSU Tigers (-4.5) vs #23 USC Trojans (O/U 64.5)
When: Sunday, September 1, 7:30 pm in Las Vegas, ABC
Both of these teams had porous defenses a year ago, and both could be in the running for a College Football Playoff spot.
LSU added Blake Baker, formerly the Missouri DC, to run their own defense after permitting 6.1 yards per play and 28 points per game in 2023.
Last year, they were 10-0 when holding opponents under 40 – and 0-3 when permitting 42 or more points.
The offense has a new quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and receivers Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers are gone, so the offense is likely to be less high-flying.
USC added D’Anton Lynn from UCLA as DC; last year, USC permitted 6.1 yards per play and almost 35 points per game.
Quarterback Miller Moss picks up the mantle of Caleb Williams and will have many new skill players around him; the Trojans had to replace their two top rushers and four of their six receivers.
NCAAF Pick: LSU to win and cover.
^Boston College Eagles (+16.5) at #10 Florida State Seminoles (O/U 49.5)
When: Monday, September 2, 7:30 pm ET, ESPN
This line has dropped significantly from BC +21.5 at the open, in large part because of the Seminoles’ disappointing performance against Georgia Tech in Week Zero.
However, the Eagles also impressed with their Fenway Bowl, and they have the advantage of all the game tape from Florida State’s Week Zero debacle to break down.
New head coach Bill O’Brien has installed an offense that blends what he ran at Penn State, Alabama, and the Houston Texans and New England Patriots of the NFL. It’s a pro-style set, but we don’t know what it looks like.
The Seminoles have the advantage of figuring out what they need to fix in their first game. They’ll be in front of a wild home crowd and already have their backs against the wall with that 0-1 conference record.
The Eagles have size on both lines, so it will be interesting to see where Florida State is mentally. Georgia Tech was able to exploit Florida State in the running game, particularly going to the outside, and BC has a run-first quarterback.
I see the Seminoles coming out ready to dominate, but will they be able to execute?
College Football Pick: BC to cover.
^The @SEC on ABC franchise will bring back a fan favorite from the early 2000s, revamping the old school @ESPNCFB theme song 🏈🎶
— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) August 29, 2024
More on the music kicking off a new era: https://t.co/B9qfzKqphr pic.twitter.com/oNZ4EHq9lx
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