College Football ATS Picks for Best Games in Week 10

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The first official College Football Playoff rankings came out on October 31, and the top four were in this order: Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State. The other unbeaten team, Washington, is fifth, and Oregon is sixth. Why is Ohio State #1? They have picked up solid wins against Notre Dame and Penn State, so even though they didn’t beat Wisconsin or Indiana all that emphatically, they keep winning and have brought out full effort for the toughest games. Given that, it’s interesting that Florida State was ranked fourth despite their 21-point win over #14 LSU. They have beaten Duke and Clemson and are unbeaten against the 49th toughest schedule and rank second in strength of record. Georgia (100th toughest record, 7th strength of record) and Michigan (111th toughest record, 9th strength of record) sit above them in the rankings. Maybe Georgia gets a pass because of previous postseason accomplishments, but Michigan fell to TCU in the national semifinal last year. The Seminoles should be at least ranked third – and that’s before we get into how many games the Wolverines may have won because their coaching staff benefited from stolen offensive signals from opponents. Going into Week 10, let’s look at some top-shelf College Football ATS Picks.

Week 10 College Football ATS Picks: Rankings in the following article are based on the Associated Press poll, not the CFP standings

#3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

NCAAF Lines: #3 Ohio State -18.5 vs Rutgers
When: Saturday, November 4 at 12:00 pm ET
Where: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
TV: CBS

Rutgers had the bye week to get ready to welcome the Buckeyes, and they have split their two games against the spread as the underdog, but Michigan was able to roll them, 31-7. Despite the fact that Ohio State is just 1-2-1 against the spread on the road in 2023, they have had Rutgers’ number. In their nine all-time meetings, the Buckeyes have won by an average of 42.1 points per contest. Buckeyes to win and cover.

Bet on the #3 Ohio State vs Rutgers!

Arizona State Sun Devils at #18 Utah Utes

NCAAF Lines: Arizona State +11.5 vs #18 Utah
When: Saturday, November 4 at 2:00 pm ET
Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, UT
TV: Pac-12 Network

Arizona State just picked up its first Pac-12 win of the season, while Utah just had their home winning streak demolished by Oregon last week. Arizona State has improved their run defense, permitting just over 53 yards per game on the ground in each of the last three weeks. Utah has a physical front on both offense and defense and will have some frustration to work out after last week’s loss. Utes to win and cover.

Bet on the Arizona State vs #18 Utah!

Army Black Knights vs #17 Air Force Falcons

NCAAF Lines: Army +18.5 vs #17 Air Force
When: Saturday, November 4 at 2:30 pm ET
Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
TV: CBS Sports

This is a neutral-site game at Empower Field at Mile High, and this leg of the Commander’s Cup is a rivalry in which the last five contests have been decided by an average of four points. This is a huge spread for a rivalry game. While Air Force has a defense holding opponents to just 237.9 yards per contest and the Black Knights have lost five in a row, this meeting between triple-option programs will feature a grinding pace and a close score. Black Knights to cover.

Bet on the Army vs #17 Air Force!

#9 Penn State Nittany Lions at Maryland Terrapins

NCAAF Lines: #9 Penn State -10.5 vs Maryland
When: Saturday, November 4 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: SECU Stadium, College Park, MD
TV: FOX

The Nittany Lions followed up their disappointing loss to Ohio State by almost getting upset by Indiana. Maryland started out 5-0 but has dropped three straight since then. Maryland will be ready to make a statement in this game and against Michigan, but Penn State is 7-2 straight up against the Terrapins since Maryland came into the Big Ten. Even so, this is a fairly big spread, and the Terrapins have a dangerous passing game. I’m not sure how resilient James Franklin’s Nittany Lions will turn out to be. Terrapins to cover.

Bet on the #9 Penn State vs Maryland!

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