Before the ACC and the Big Ten conference championship games took place, Miami (FL) and Wisconsin both had shots at landing in the national semifinal. Wisconsin took an unbeaten 12-0 record into their tilt with Ohio State, but their defense simply could not hold an Ohio State offense that kept finding ways to complete passes down the field. Miami faced Clemson with a chance to knock the top seed out of the playoff, but the Tigers simply dismantled Miami, sending them to their second straight loss, as they had suffered a bad loss to Pitt the week before. Now the two teams face off in a top-tier bowl but one that has to seem like something of a consolation bracket game on Saturday night in Miami. Check out our Orange Bowl lines prediction for this matchup.
Wisconsin vs. Miami 2017 Orange Bowl Pick & Betting Preview
When: Saturday, December 30, 2017, 8:00pm ETWhere: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FLTV: ESPNRadio: Wisconsin Badger Sports Network / Miami Hurricane Radio NetworkLive Stream: WatchESPNOrange Bowl Odds: Wisconsin (-4.5), O/U 45
Why should you bet on the Badgers?
Wisconsin’s defense ranks #3 in the nation in points permitted per game (13.2) and are #1 in opponent passer rating and in passing yards permitted per game. They are also in the top five in rushing yards permitted per game, yards permitted per play and yards permitted per running play. In those 12 wins that they posted during the regular season, they held 11 opponents under 18 points. It was just a series of lapses in the first half against Ohio State that saw the Buckeyes put up 21 points before halftime.
The Badger offense has developed a reputation for a plodding style, but they shed that to some degree this year. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook has a tendency to throw interceptions at just the wrong time — he had at least one pick in each Big 12 contest — but his ability to complete passes in the clutch and the ability of the Badger running game to put up big gains when the team needed them had gotten Wisconsin through rough patches on offense. Against Ohio State, though, they came up short, losing 27-21. Can they get back to their winning ways against Miami — in a bowl game played in south Florida?
Why should you put your money on the Hurricanes?
Miami looked like one of the nation’s elite teams after they routed Notre Dame at home, sending the Fighting Irish out of the playoff hunt, and then Virginia, a pair of games in which they rolled up more than 80 points combined. However, they only scored 17 points in those last two losses, losing 24-14 at Pitt and then 38-3 in that ACC title game. Quarterback Malik Rosier had had some solid games this season, but not against Clemson, when he threw for just 110 yards and had two picks. That dynamic offense needs to return against Wisconsin, or else the Badgers will slowly grind the life out of the Hurricanes.
If you watched the Pitt and Clemson games, you might think that the Hurricanes don’t have much of a defense. However, for much of the season they have featured a fearsome pass rush and a secondary that can generate shutdown coverage. If they can do that, and if they can fill the gaps against the Badger rushing attack, then they should be able to dictate the flow of play. The Badgers are quicker than in years past, but they don’t have the speed of Miami.
Expert Orange Bowl Pick and Final Prediction
Wisconsin has covered the spread in four of their last five games, while the Hurricanes have only done so in two of their last eight and in one of their last five games against Big Ten competition. While Wisconsin’s loss to Ohio State was disappointing, it was not the sort of setback that Miami has suffered in both of their last two games out. I see the Badgers frustrating the Hurricanes with their grinding style of play and rolling to a 30-21 win.
