NFL Week 4 Over/Under Betting Picks

If you’re looking at a Dallas Cowboys game right now, you might want to consider the “under” no matter who the opponent is, because Dallas has a pretty solid defense, but their offense isn’t moving the ball much at all. They’re averaging 13 points per game through three contests, as the offensive line is struggling, and Dak Prescott doesn’t have much in the way of accuracy. When he does hit a receiver, he has a collection of retreads (with the possible exception of Cole Beasley), and he doesn’t have a legitimate tight end. On the other end of the spectrum is Kansas City, whose quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has 13 touchdown passes through three contests. Trends like this help us with NFL betting against the point total. Check out our predictions for each matchup for NFL Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Over/Under Betting Picks

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings: 1. @RamsNFL 2. @Chiefs 3. @Eagles 4. @Jaguars 5-32. https://t.co/m0g9Dq3wfX (via @HarrisonNFL) pic.twitter.com/epUgkY0VuF

— NFL (@NFL) September 25, 2018

• Bye Week: Carolina, Washington

Thursday, September 27, 8:20pm ET

Minnesota at L.A. Rams (O/U 50)

Both teams have terrific defenses; the 27 points that Minnesota surrendered against Buffalo last week will certainly become an outlier. I expect this to be a grinding game in which both teams struggle to move the ball, despite the talented arms at quarterback. Give me the under.

Sunday, September 30, 1:00pm ET

N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville (38)

Jacksonville lost a 9-6 game at home to Tennessee last week. Their defense slows down the opposition, but they don’t move the ball much. The Jets have a young quarterback — and a fairly stout defense. I’ll take the under.

Miami at New England (47.5)

I thought Tom Brady would unload on the Detroit Lions last week, and it didn’t happen. Coming back home and facing an AFC East foe, I see his urgency increasing to a more appropriate level. Miami will come in with confidence, but I’m not sure they can keep up their end of this point total. I’ll go under.

Philadelphia at Tennessee (41.5)

Carson Wentz looked like his old self on Sunday despite that interception, but the Eagles struggled to move the ball against a Colts defense that’s not all that great. Tennessee also has a strong defense, and with Marcus Mariota hobbled, I don’t see the points getting high. I’m going under.

Houston at Indianapolis (47.5)

Deshaun Watson hasn’t really gotten back on track this year — although Andrew Luck looks like he’s ready to break out. The Texans have a strong defense, and the Colts kept Carson Wentz in check last week. I’ll take the under.

Buffalo at Green Bay (45)

I was fairly surprised when Washington’s defense shut down Green Bay last week. With Aaron Rodgers’ mobility limited, and with Buffalo coming in confident after their win at Minnesota, this could turn into another slugfest. I’m going under.

Detroit at Dallas (43.5)

If Dallas is only good for 10-15 points per week, can Detroit put up the rest? Not against the Dallas defense. Give me the under.

Tampa Bay at Chicago (47)

Fitzmagic took the first half off against Pittsburgh, throwing three interceptions, including a pick-six, but he did lead a rousing comeback in the second half, bringing the Buccaneers back to lose by just a 30-27 margin. He has over 400 yards passing in three straight games, the first time that’s ever happened in the NFL. I’m going over here.

Cincinnati at Atlanta (51.5)

Atlanta can move the ball up and down the field in a hurry, and so can Cincinnati — although not quite as quickly. The Falcons have a young, talented defense, but they struggle against the pass. This game could turn into another Atlanta track meet, so I’m taking the over.

Sunday, September 30, 4:05pm ET

Seattle at Arizona (39)

Arizona scored 14 points against Chicago a week ago and then saw their offense fall off the table. Seattle put the clamps on Dallas’ offense last week and should be able to score more against the Cardinals than they did against the Cowboys. I’m going over.

Cleveland at Oakland (45)

The Browns like to wear the opposition down with their defense, and the Raiders don’t look like they have a lot of weapons despite the strong arm of Derek Carr. Can Baker Mayfield continue to amaze Cleveland fans? Even if he keeps the Browns’ offense moving, I think the Cleveland D keeps this game under.

Sunday, September 30, 4:25pm ET

New Orleans at N.Y. Giants (50)

Two gunslingers in Eli Manning and Drew Brees, two pass defenses that are vulnerable on the back end. Give me the over.

San Francisco at L.A. Chargers (47.5)

The Niners will have C.J. Beathard at quarterback, so I don’t see them scoring much against the Charger defense. Give me the under.

Sunday, September 30, 8:20pm ET

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (51)

Big Ben is delivering — and so is Joe Flacco. This AFC North matchup should turn into an uncharacteristically high scoring affair, so I’m taking the over.

Monday, October 1, 8:15pm ET

Kansas City at Denver (56.5)

Can Patrick Mahomes and Case Keenum turn this matchup into a barnburner? I think they can. I’m going over.