There is still a lot of intrigue in the AFC, as only two teams have reached double-digit wins. The Kansas City Chiefs have clinched the AFC West, three games up on Oakland with three games to play and in possession of the tiebreaker. The other three divisions are all in play. The AFC South looked like it belonged to Houston after they beat the New England Patriots, but then they got embarrassed by home by Denver this past weekend. Now Houston and Tennessee are tied with three games to go…and with two games to play against each other. Let’s talk about the implications of the last three weeks for NFL betting enthusiasts and go over our rationale for the projections we have in the AFC Conference seedings.
2019 NFL Betting Projections for AFC Conference Winners
“We have something to accomplish. I can’t tell you how proud I am with this game.”
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 9, 2019
Step inside the post-game locker room to hear Coach Harbaugh's speech to the team. pic.twitter.com/rLUzkTTqtU
Current AFC Seeds (After Week 14)
- Baltimore (AFC North Leader)
- New England (AFC East Leader)
- Kansas City (AFC West Leader)
- Houston (AFC South Leader)
- Buffalo (Wild Card)
- Pittsburgh (Wild Card)
Projected AFC Seeds
- Baltimore (AFC North Champion)
- New England (AFC East Champion)
- Kansas City (AFC West Champion)
- Tennessee (AFC South Champion)
- Buffalo (Wild Card)
- Houston (Wild Card)
Will the Patriots Get the First Seed?
It’s normal to see New England as the top seed, but they have gone from 10-1 to 10-3 after losing in Houston and then at home to Kansas City. The Ravens have an effective two-game lead for the top seed with three games to go; their record is one game better, and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Ravens finish with the Jets (on a short week) and then go to Cleveland, where they plan to avenge that home loss that happened way back on September 25. They finish the season at home against Pittsburgh. It’s not hard to see the Ravens cruising to a 14-2 finish, or a 13-3 finish if they decide to rest their starters against the Steelers.
What about those Steelers?
They are 8-5, but their road to a wild card is tough. They host Buffalo on Sunday, in a game that was flexed down to Sunday night. Buffalo is breathing down New England’s neck at 9-4 and has the defense to shut down Devlin Hodges & Company. Then Pittsburgh heads to New York to take on the Jets, who have delivered some really impressive performances, mixed with some dreadful ones. Then the Steelers finish in Baltimore. It’s almost as easy to see the Steelers coming out 9-7 as it is to see them finishing 10-6 or even 11-5 if the Ravens rest those starters. For now, though, I see Houston emerging with the second wild card.
You might wonder why I have Tennessee moving into the AFC South lead. The answer to that question is Ryan Tannehill. He has started seven games, posting a 6-1 record and throwing 15 touchdowns against just four picks. In the Titans’ win over Oakland on Sunday, he threw three touchdown passes, racking up 391 passing yards. He and Aaron Rodgers are the only quarterbacks in NFL history to post a completion percentage of at least 75 percent with a passer rating of at least 130 in three straight games. I could easily see the Titans splitting their two games with the Texans and beating New Orleans in between, as the Saints are coming to play outside at Nissan Stadium.
How About the Wild Card?
In the wild card round, I see Buffalo going to Tennessee and ending that Titan run. The Bills’ defense is just too strong, and Josh Allen has figured out how to lead that offense. Houston will head to Kansas City, but they won’t beat the Chiefs twice this season at Arrowhead.
In the divisional round, Buffalo would then head to Baltimore, where the Ravens would reprise their regular season win over the Bills. The Chiefs will go to Kansas City, and Andy Reid will most certainly not outduel Bill Belichick again.
That leads us to the AFC Championship, where New England heads to Baltimore…and the Ravens advance to the Super Bowl.
