2019 NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Picks

On Sunday, the NFL’s conference championships will get underway. In the afternoon affair, the New Orleans Saints host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship, followed by the New England Patriots visiting the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship — the first time Arrowhead Stadium has hosted an AFC title game. The winners will advance to Super Bowl LIII in two weeks. In each game, the home team has the spread that you would expect for the host — but no more, indicating that the NFL betting world views both of these games as pick’em contests. We have our own thoughts about which team will cover each spread — so take a look before you lock in your wagers.

2019 NFL Conference Round ATS Betting Picks

Four teams remain. Who will advance to #SBLIII? #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/6rnDrsNrzA

— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2019

NFC Championship

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (-3.5) (3:05pm ET, FOX)

The regular-season meeting between these two teams was also in New Orleans, and the Saints rolled out to a 35-17 lead and held on to win, 45-35. The Rams’ defense really didn’t have an answer for Drew Brees’ passing game or for the rushing by Alvin Kamara or Mark Ingram. The Rams did make an interesting shift in their offensive approach in the divisional round against Dallas, going from their high-flying passing game to a bruising running game that saw both Todd Gurley II and C.J. Anderson break the hundred-yard barrier. Of course, that decision had a lot to do with the fact that the Rams were able to figure out what Dallas’ defensive line was going to do as far as twists and stunts, thanks to tendencies they had picked up from film. It is unlikely that the Rams will rely as heavily on the run against New Orleans, as Sean Payton’s team will likely have been most careful to ensure that their own tendencies are not as easy to predict. Also, the Saints’ defense was the best unit against the running game during the regular season. With both defenses amping up in the postseason, this game is likely to come down to the last drive, and Drew Brees definitely holds an edge over Jared Goff as far as experience at quarterback — as well as statistics for this season. I like New Orleans to cover.

AFC Championship

New England at Kansas City (-3) (6:40pm ET, CBS)

This game really boils down to whether Patrick Mahomes II can overcome the serious coaching disadvantage that Andy Reid has when he faces Bill Belichick. Reid has a legion of poor decisions in his playoff past, while Belichick has emerged as the premier coaching mind of the last 20 years. Belichick will have a scheme ready to frustrate the Chiefs, at least at first, much like how he modified his defense to mirror that of the Baltimore Ravens in the early going against the Chargers last week, after having seen the Ravens shut down the Chargers’ high-flying attack at points in their wild card game. Mahomes came out throwing confidently in the divisional round game against the Colts. On a cold day with snow swirling around him, he dropped back and quickly found receivers before the pass rush could get to him. Tailback Damien Williams pounded the Colts’ defense time and time again. The Patriots will be much better prepared than the Colts were, particularly since they have gotten to play Kansas City already this year, but can Mahomes overcome it? I think yes, and for two reasons. The first one has to do with the age of the Patriots’ roster. New England executed a dominant scheme on both sides of the ball in cold weather last week. Now they have to do it again, with a 40+ Tom Brady and other seasoned veterans as Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski leading the way. Going on the road has been bad news for the Pats this season, and playing a second consecutive game in sub-freezing temperatures will be a challenge for this team. I see Mahomes getting just enough of an advantage to lead the Chiefs to a win, which is why I like the Chiefs to cover.