Given that most of the preparation for the 2020 NFL season took place virtually, many sports betting observers were wondering how offenses would look in the early going. Without preseason games to work out the kinks, and with some teams coming in with new head coaches, how well would the offenses run? Well, after two weeks, we see that some teams are better prepared than others.
Let’s take a look at how quarterback play has fared for some of the 32 NFL franchises and start getting your NFL betting cap on because games are about to start..
NFL Betting News:
NFL Week 3 Rundown for the 2020 Season
Russell Wilson (SEA) has thrown nine touchdown passes to lead the NFL. He has thrown just 11 incompletions. The Seattle fan base had started a campaign to #LetRussCook — in other words, stop relying on Pete Carroll’s philosophy to establish the ground game first, and the team has followed it. Seattle has only called 44 designed running plays, eighth fewest in the NFL. Wilson has 610 passing yards through two games, a career best at this point. His completion rate of 82 percent is the best in NFL history for any quarterback through the first two weeks of a season with 50 or more attempts, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
If you look deeper at the numbers, his play has been even better. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, his off-target percentage is just 6.7 percent, far and away the best in the league. In Week 2, he hit David Moore for a 38-yard score, and that pass only had a 6.3 percent completion probability. He threw the ball 55 yards in the air, and Moore was covered tightly (within 0.8 yards) by New England’s Jason McCourty and was just 0.4 yards from the sideline.
Drew Brees (NO), on the other hand, has gotten off to an ice-cold start. He has a completion rate that is 8.4 percent below what is expected. That’s #33 in the NFL (and yes, there are only 32 teams, so this includes backups who have gotten into the game).
Brees has dropped in other numbers as well. He is #32 in the NFL in completion percentage on passes attempted to receivers outside the numbers (48 percent). In 2019, his percentage on those passes was 74 percent, tops in the league. Of his throws so far this season, only two have gone at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. He is averaging 4.8 yards per pass attempt. No quarterback has had a lower average through Weeks 1 and 2 since 2009, when Brett Favre posted a 4.0 average. In that year, Favre was coming back from surgery for a biceps tendon, and Favre was getting eased back into the offense by the Vikings’ coaching staff. Has Brees lost arm strength? We’ll see.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) is still growing as a pocket passer. He won the MVP last year in large part because of the way he ran the ball (running for 1,206 yards on the season). This year, he leads the NFL in Total QBR on passes that he has thrown from the pocket. He has left the pocket before passing on almost half of his attempts, but when he throws from the pocket, he is 30 of 36 for 369 yards, four scores and a 97 QBR. His pocket QBR last year was 78.9 — so he has grown as a player.
Kyler Murray leads the NFL in scramble yards through Week 2, with 120 on 11 attempts. He’s scored twice with his legs, and this has contributed to his QBR of 83.8 through two weeks, fifth-best in the league. His QBR for passing plays alone is 72.7, just 21st in the league, but the system requires quick passes, which should help him as he follows the learning curve. Almost 36 percent of his passes have gone to targets on or behind the line of scrimmage, tops in the NFL. His deeper balls haven’t been all that great yet, as he is just 4 of 12 on attempts 15 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage. However, they are scoring 27 points on offense per game and have a 2-0 record.
