Wagering on the combined point total, also known as the “over/under,” is another way to lay action on a NFL matchup. If you’re looking at a game where you don’t really have a clear idea of the winner but have a sense that teams will either score in bunches or have a hard time finding the end zone, then you can take advantage of a point total that appears out of whack to you. As the season goes on, I tend to look hard at the “under” for the Thursday night games, thanks to the short week that both teams face as far as preparation and recuperation are concerned.
Let’s look at some juicy over/under NFL betting picks for Week 1 of the NFL’s 2021 campaign.
NFL News: 2021 Week 1 Best Over/Under Picks
Thursday, September 9
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5), O/U 51.5
Dallas’ defense was awful last season, allowing more points and yards than any defense in the history of the storied franchise — and than any other team in the NFL last season. The team did not give up fewer than 20 points in any game until their December 13 win at Cincinnati, where they rolled, 38-7 — against a Bengals team that did not have starting quarterback Joe Burrow. Their opener only produced 37 points, but that was against a defense-first Rams team. Tampa Bay has all starters back on both sides of the ball, and the Cowboys have their quarterback returning — and a ton of rookies on defense. Take the over.
Sunday, September 12
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals, O/U 48
Joe Burrow returns at quarterback for the Bengals, and the Vikings bring a fairly prolific offense to Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals saw Burrow throw the ball at least 40 times in the games he started last year, and the Bengals were able to move the ball up and down the field. He has several talented wide receiver options, and the Vikings’ defense showed some major holes a year ago. The Bengals didn’t do much to build their defense, so this could turn into a track meet. Take the over.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) at Houston Texans, O/U 45.5
So Jacksonville goes on the road with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback (in Trevor Lawrence) and is favored to win? How does that work, exactly? Well, the Houston Texans have traded away a ton of their talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and no one really knows whether it will be Deshaun Watson or Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Watson has asked for a trade, and he is under investigation for over two dozen lawsuits for sexual harassment from massage therapists, awaiting league discipline resulting from an investigation. Either way, the Texans have a ton of drama. So while Jacksonville is likely to show some growing pains early, the Texans have major issues running through their locker room. Expect a bit of a slog, and take the under.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-2.5), O/U 45.5
The Patriots will either have Cam Newton or Mac Jones at quarterback, most likely. Newton doesn’t generate much down the field these days, and Jones is a rookie. Miami will have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, and he is looking to outgrow some ultraconservative tendencies in his own game. Bill Belichick is great at sucking the offensive flow out of a game with his defensive adjustments, so while the Patriots’ offense isn’t flush with elite speed at this time, the team can gum up the works and slow things down. Take the under.
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