Now that the NFL draft is in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to take a look ahead to training camp and the 2022 regular season. Some teams helped themselves out a good deal with their new acquisitions, while other teams largely stood pat. How does this reflect each team’s NFL betting odds to win their division? Take a look.
NFL News: Long Shot Picks to Win Each Division
AFC North
| Cleveland Browns | +170 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +210 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +220 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +990 |
I have no idea why the Browns are favored in the AFC North. Actually, I do know – there is a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and the team added Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Watson is a transcendent talent, but he has been off the field for over a year – and the furor around the team adding him could affect the chemistry in the clubhouse. I loved what Cincinnati did last year, and the additions to the O-line and defense should help the Bengals repeat. A +220 moneyline isn’t exactly a long shot, but the Steelers are planning to start Mason Rudolph at quarterback, so I’m not putting any money on them until I see him go a game without a back-breaking interception.
AFC South
| Indianapolis Colts | +105 |
| Tennessee Titans | +125 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +650 |
| Houston Texans | +2500 |
We have two teams in rebuild mode and two contenders in this division. The Colts will have Matt Ryan at quarterback, and I’m not sure whether he will have a huge year, like Matthew Stafford did with the Rams, or whether the Colts will be disappointed with yet another veteran signing. Ryan’s chances are better than Phillip Rivers’ or Carson Wentz’s, though, because Ryan doesn’t have a reputation for collapsing in big games. I would think about the Jaguars if they had inked Byron Leftwich to a deal at head coach, but Doug Pederson doesn’t do much for me. The Titans still have Derrick Henry, and Ryan Tannehill is a solid quarterback, so the Titans are my pick to win the AFC South.
AFC East
| Buffalo Bills | -190 |
| Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots | +400 |
| N.Y. Jets | +1800 |
The Jets should be a lot better thanks to a terrific draft, but they still have a quarterback depth chart of Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco. The Bills helped themselves out by strengthening their secondary and finding a solid replacement for Cole Beasley, but remember that Mac Jones is a year more experienced, and he still has the best coach in the league preparing him. A bet on the Patriots to win at +400 could turn into a smart value pick.
AFC West
| Kansas City Chiefs | +150 |
| L.A. Chargers | +250 |
| Denver Broncos | +260 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +600 |
This is a division where I’m looking hard at the long shot. All four teams could win this division; all four have elite quarterbacks. Derek Carr has put this team on his back numerous times in the last year and carried them to victory, and their defense can be opportunistic. If the Chiefs come out with a bit of a hangover, and if Russell Wilson is slow to take off in Denver, the Raiders could catch fire and make a run in the division.
NFC North
| Green Bay Packers | -185 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +270 |
| Chicago Bears | +800 |
| Detroit Lions | +1200 |
Given that the Packers still don’t have an elite wide receiver, these odds say more about sports bettors’ expectations and the failings of the rest of the division. I think the Lions are still too far away, but the Bears are interesting, now that Justin Fields should get the keys to the offense. If he can get the offense going, the Bears’ defense is still solid. At +800, I wouldn’t put a ton of money down, but a small value bet might make sense.
NFC South
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -300 |
| New Orleans Saints | +450 |
| Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons | +1200 |
The Saints have me curious here after seeing how well Jameis Winston played before blowing his ACL. He is back and recovered, and Tom Brady just signed a nine-figure sportscasting deal, which means that this season is his last…and his eyes may already be on the horizon. Rob Gronkowski still hasn’t signed a deal to return, and the Saints very well could slip in here. The Panthers and the Falcons are still in rebuilding mode.
NFC East
| Dallas Cowboys | -105 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +250 |
| Washington Commanders | +450 |
| N.Y. Giants | +700 |
Dallas lost key players in free agency and had a mediocre draft. Philadelphia brought in talent at wide receiver and is my pick to win this division right now. I was looking hard at Washington, but then they added Carson Wentz. Really?
NFC West
| L.A. Rams | +150 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +200 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +270 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +900 |
I’m curious to see what Seattle eventually does at the quarterback position. A depth chart with Drew Lock, Geno Smith and Jacob Eason is not exciting, but remember that Baker Mayfield is still on the trading block for the Browns. I was high on Arizona last year, but then they fell apart in the second half of the season…again. I don’t have a long shot pick for you here, because even San Francisco has an unsettled quarterback situation and an unhappy star in Deebo Samuel.
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