As a sports betting prop goes, picking a team to go over or under a particular win total is a completely different beast in the NFL as opposed to college football. In the college game, there are some totals that make no sense from a wagering perspective, such as Alabama or Georgia at 11.5 (out of 12 games). In the NFL, the highest win totals on the board are also 11.5, but the NFL features 17 games. Let’s take a look at the four teams in the NFC East, along with their win totals and our thoughts on your best NFL betting picks.
NFL News: Win Totals Over/Under NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 10.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Dallas helped themselves out in the draft by taking Sam Williams out of Ole Miss in the second round. Williams does represent a possible risk in terms of off-the-field issues, but Williams joins the pass-rush crew in Dallas, giving Micah Parson the ability to keep moving between the pass rush and linebacker.
However, winning 11 games could be tough. The Cowboys do get nine games at home, but their extra AFC game is against Cincinnati, right after the opener against Tampa Bay. Those games are both at home, but the Cowboys could still be 0-2 after that stretch. I don’t see the Cowboys going 6-0 in the division, so I’m adding a third loss (and maybe a fourth) in that slate. They visit the Rams, the Packers, the Titans and the Vikings, and they have the Colts at home. An 8-9 season is certainly possible. Take the under.
N.Y. Giants: 7 (Over -110 / Under -110)
The Giants are trying the Daniel Jones thing for another season, and they might not win a game before their November 6 bye. They start: at Tennessee, Carolina, Dallas, Chicago, at Green Bay, Baltimore, at Jacksonville and at Seattle. They could beat either the Jaguars or the Seahawks as both rebuild, but those are on the road. They finish much more easily than they begin, with five division games after the bye, but a 1-7 or 8-0 start would make it extremely hard to get to seven wins. Take the under.
Philadelphia Eagles: 8.5 (Over -140 / Under +115)
With the trade for A.J. Brown, the Eagles should have a legitimate offense this year – and they made it to the wild card round last season. They could start 4-0 (at Detroit, Minnesota, at Washington, Jacksonville), and if they can split their games at Arizona and at home against Dallas, that’s a 5-1 record going into the bye. Then they get Pittsburgh, at Houston, and Washington at home, so a 7-2 record is not beyond the realm of possibility. After that comes a trip to Indianapolis, Green Bay and Tennessee at home, followed by a trip to Chicago and Dallas. I have them at 8-6 at that point. So then they would need to win one game in the last three: at Dallas and at home against New Orleans and the Giants to hit the over. A lot of people agree with me, making the value minimal, but if you want a pick here, take the over.
Washington Commanders: 7.5 (Over -125 / Under +105)
The latest chapter in the Carson Wentz saga is set to unfold in Washington, and the Commanders start with games at home against Jacksonville and at Detroit, so I see a 2-0 start as likely. Then they host Philadelphia and visit Dallas, so things could start turning at that point (2-2). A visit from the Titans and a trip to Chicago, followed by a visit from the Packers and a trip to Indianapolis, could have the Commanders at 2-6. At that point, they would need a 5-3 finish to hit the over. They do get the Giants twice and Houston, as well as a home date with Atlanta. However, they visit San Francisco, host the Vikings and host the Browns, so I’m not optimistic. Take the under.
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