The NFC North is still the Green Bay Packers…and everyone else. The Minnesota Vikings paid a lot of money to get Kirk Cousins under center, but that hasn’t paid off in terms of results. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, and apparently no one else in the division has figured out how to stop him, even though the Packers won’t get a solid receiving corps in place around him. Detroit and Chicago are still perpetual rebuilding projects, with both teams looking to get a solid defense and a credible quarterback at the same time. Take a look at our NFL betting thoughts about each team’s performance with respect to the win total prop this season.
NFL News: Win Totals Over/Under NFC North
Chicago Bears: 6.5 (Over -110 / Under -105)
Justin Fields has the keys to the offense now, but he does not have enough talent around him to contend for a division title, and even a wild card berth is out of reach. The Bears don’t have their bye to Week 14, so injuries and fatigue will take a toll. However, the Bears could conceivably start 2-2, following up games with San Francisco and Green Bay with dates against Houston and the Giants. A trip to Minnesota will likely be disappointing, but then they welcome Washington (3-3). They travel to New England and Dallas (3-5), and then they have Miami and Detroit at home, Atlanta and the Jets on the road, and the Packers at home (5-8). After the bye, they host Philadelphia and Buffalo (5-10), and they finish with Detroit on the road and Minnesota at home. By this point, I’m not sure they can sweep those games. Take the under.
Detroit Lions: 6.5 (Over +100 / Under -120)
Jared Goff has posted a 3-17-1 career record and a QBR of 33 when playing quarterback without Sean McVay as his head coach. However, in Detroit, he has not had much talent around him. That will change this season, as tailback D’Andre Swift, tight end T.J. Hockenson and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown will have wide receivers D.J. Clark and Jameson Williams join them. The Lions could jump out to a 2-0 record with home games against Philadelphia and Washington, but after that, trips to Minnesota and New England wrapped around a home game with Seattle could send the Lions to the bye with a realistic 2-3 record. Detroit comes out of the bye in Dallas (2-4) and then hosts Miami and Green Bay (3-5). Trips to Chicago and the Giants should have the Lions at 4-6, and a three-game homestand with Buffalo, Jacksonville and Minnesota should leave them with a 5-8 record. Trips to play the Jets and Carolina could end up with a split (6-9), but I’m not sure that Detroit beats either Chicago at home or Green Bay on the road. I don’t have a clear sense on either side of 6 ½ for this team, so I’m staying away, but if you want my instinct, take the over.
Green Bay Packers: 11 (Over -125 / Under +105)
As always, the chemistry in Green Bay is a question, and the departure of Davante Adams adds more problems for the offense to solve, although the Packers are 7-0 in games without Adams since the start of the 2019 season. I see the Packers starting slowly with a loss in their opener at Minnesota, but they should bounce back to 1-1 against Chicago at home. A trip to Tampa Bay will go the Buccaneers’ way, but after that, the Packers have a stretch of three games at home (New England, Giants, Jets) and a trip to Washington that should see them at 5-2. A trip to Buffalo will put them at 5-3, but then a trip to Detroit and a home game against Dallas will see them at 7-3. Hosting Tennessee on a Thursday night will push them to 8-3, and trips to Philadelphia and Chicago should get them to 10-3 going into the bye. A visit from the Rams will be their first loss since the Bills game (10-4), but a trip to Miami and home games against Minnesota and Detroit should have them comfortably over (13-4). Take the over.
Minnesota Vikings: 9 (Over +100 / Under -120)
The Vikings do have a new head coach, but the talent on the roster has averaged nine wins per season over the last nine campaigns. The NFC as a whole is down, so the response to a new head coach will be interesting to see. The early going should be fairly light; I have the Vikings opening with a home win over the Pack and then rolling to the bye (at Philadelphia, Detroit, at New Orleans, Chicago, at Miami) with a 6-0 record. They come out welcoming the Cardinals and visiting Washington, so I have them at 7-1 at that point. Then they visit Buffalo and host Dallas (7-3). Home games against New England and the Jets should get them to 8-4, and then when they visit Detroit, they should hit their win total (9-4). They host the Colts and the Giants after that (10-5) and finish at Green Bay and Chicago (11-6). Take the over.
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