The NFC South looks like a division that will be the Buccaneers – and everyone else. However, just because the Saints are getting a new head coach does not mean they will fall off the table. Jameis Winston was having a terrific season before he blew his ACL, so the team should have continuity. The Panthers and the Falcons are still in rebuilding mode, but with Tom Brady potentially already looking to the future with his $375 million broadcasting deal, will the Bucs be as hungry? Check out the win totals for each team in the division, along with our NFL betting thoughts.
NFL News: Win Totals Over/Under NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 5 (Over +100 / Under -120)
Marcus Mariota is the new starting quarterback, but he is most likely just a veteran placeholder until rookie Desmond Ridder is ready to get his chance. The Falcons might not win a game until Week 8, when they host the Carolina Panthers: they start with New Orleans and then continue with game at the Rams, at Seattle, at home against Cleveland, at Tampa Bay, at home against San Francisco and at Cincinnati. Seattle could be winnable depending on how Drew Lock starts for the Seahawks, but right now I have Atlanta at 1-7 after beating the Panthers. Then they host the Chargers, visit Carolina and host Chicago, and I think they either beat the Panthers again or beat the Bears (2-9). They head to Washington and host Pittsburgh going into the bye (3-10). Then they have four tough games after the bye: at New Orleans, at Baltimore and at home against Arizona and Tampa Bay, so a 3-14 finish is certainly possible. Take the under.
Carolina Panthers: 6 (Over -105 / Under -115)
The Panthers are in transition at quarterback, with Sam Darnold still the starter, but with Ole Miss product Matt Corral as the starter-in-waiting. The Panthers host Cleveland to start the season, and whether it’s Deshaun Watson or Jacoby Brissett at quarterback for the Browns, I think the Panthers fall either way. A trip to New York against the Giants could be the team’s only shot at a win for a while. They have New Orleans, Arizona and San Francisco at home, ahead of a trip to play the Rams (1-5). Then they ost Tampa Bay and head to Atlanta and Cincinnati (1-8). They host Atlanta and then visit Baltimore and host Denver going into the bye, and I think they win one of those (2-10). After the bye, they play at Seattle, host Pittsburgh and Detroit, and finish at Tampa Bay and New Orleans. I think they could win two of those (4-13). Take the under.
New Orleans Saints: 8 (Over -110 / Under -110)
The Saints went 9-8 last year even though they played most of the season without starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston returns, as does wide receiver Michael Thomas, and getting Chris Olave in the draft will boost the offense. Sean Payton did leave, but this win total seems a bit low. They open in Atlanta and should win, but a home date with Tampa Bay will be interesting, as the Saints swept the Bucs last year. A trip to Carolina and a game in England against the Vikings could have the Saints at 3-1. Home dates with Seattle and Cincinnati should put them at 4-2, and a trip to Arizona and a home date with Las Vegas should be another split (5-3). I see them also splitting a home game with Baltimore and a trip to Pittsburgh (6-4). I see them losing at home to the Rams before beating the 49ers on the road and losing in Tampa (7-6), as they enter the Week 14 bye. A home date with Atlanta, trips to Cleveland and Philadephia and a home finale against Carolina should push them to 9-8 or 10-7, so take the over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
Even with injuries all over their wide receiving corps last year, the Bucs went 13-4. Last year, though, their schedule ranked 29th of 32 in degree of difficulty, as their opponents had gone 126-145 in 2020. This year they face opponents with a combined record of 154-134-1. I think they open in Dallas with a win, but then they drop three in a row (at New Orleans and at home against Green Bay and Kansas City) to start 1-3. They bounce back with three straight wins (Atlanta, at Pittsburgh, at Carolina) but lose at home to Baltimore and to the Rams (4-5). They beat Seattle in Germany to go into the bye week at 5-5. They head to Cleveland and win after the bye, and they beat New Orleans to go 7-5. They beat San Francisco on the road but lose at home to Cincinnati (8-6). They finish at Arizona (9-6, given the Cardinals’ tendency to swoon late in the season) and beat Carolina at home and Atlanta on the road to finish 11-6. There are other win totals that I feel more comfortable about this year, but if you are set on betting on this total, take the under.
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