AFC Championship Lines & Game Preview: Jacksonville at New England

The New England Patriots didn’t surprise most bettors when they routed the Tennessee Titans, 35-14, in the divisional round of the playoffs. After all, it was the team’s third consecutive win and cover as a double-digit favorite, and it meant that the Pats had covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 contests. What did surprise many bettors, though, was the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wild 45-41 win in Pittsburgh over a Steeler team that apparently left the defense in the locker room. Quarterback Blake Bortles bounced back from a performance in the wild card round that had been tentative at best and led the Jaguars on drive after drive to advance to the AFC Championship. Once again, the Patriots are big NFL odds favorites.

AFC Championship Lines & Game Preview: Jacksonville at New England

The @Jaguars can pull an AFC Championship Game upset if… 👇👇👇 (via @NFLNetwork) #JAXvsNE #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/aQ84jn31fL

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2018

When: Sunday, January 21, 2018, 3:05am EST Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA TV: CBS Radio: 1010 AM (Jacksonville) / 98.5 FM (New England) Live Stream: NFL Live AFC Championship Odds: New England (-9.5), O/U 46.5

Latest AFC Championship Betting Trends

• Jacksonville is 8-4 ATS in the last 12 games on the road
• Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in the last 12 games
• The total went OVER in 4 of Jacksonville’s last 6 games
• New England is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games
• New England is 12-1 SU in the last 13 games
• The total went UNDER in 9 of New England’s last 13 games

Why should you bet on the Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have not advanced to the AFC Championship since 1999 — but they made it in large part because of the confidence of Blake Bortles, who didn’t throw for even 100 yards against Buffalo in the wild card game but picked up 214 yards through the air, throwing for a touchdown pass and  — most importantly — turning the ball over exactly zero times. Tailback Leonard Fournette had a big day as well, running for 109 yards on 24 attempts. He did leave the game briefly with an injury and didn’t look as solid in the second half, so you’ll want to check the latest injury report before you lock in your wager. The Jaguars’ defense, though, took a beating. They did take an interception back to the house, but they also surrendered 469 passing yards — and 545 yards in total on the day. Le’Veon Bell was able to find room to run, and if the Steelers’ receiving corps hadn’t had so many drops, Pittsburgh likely would have been able to overcome the shoddy play of their own defense and top 50 points. If you like Jacksonville, you think that they’ll get back to that lockdown style that got them to the playoffs. But if they couldn’t shut down Ben Roethlisberger, how will they shut down Tom Brady?

Why should you put your money on the Patriots?

Once again, the answer to this question begins with Tom Brady. He threw three touchdown passes against Tennessee in the divisional round, rolling up 337 yards through the air. That performance gave him 66 postseason touchdown passes. Tailback Dion Lewis carried the ball 15 times for 62 yards, enough to loosen up the front seven so that they couldn’t pin back their ears and rely on the blitz. Danny Amendola finally had a breakout game, catching 11 passes for 112 yards. Brady should be able to find some openings down the field against the Jacksonville defense, as quickly as he gets the ball out. Early in the season, the New England defense had some issues to resolve. However, they set a team playoff record against Tennessee, posting eight sacks. They also shut down tailback Derrick Henry, who had played a major role in the Titans’ win over Kansas City in the wild card round. They will need a similar plan to shut down Marcus Mariota and Leonard Fournette and get back to the Super Bowl.

Expert Pick and Final Score Prediction

New England has not lost a postseason game at home since 2013. In fact, the Patriots are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread over that stretch. They are also 7-0 straight up in their last seven games against the Jaguars, covering the spread in five of those wins. In their last 11 games overall, they have won 10, and those wins have been by a combined 157 points. Given the fact that New England is now playing in their seventh straight AFC title game, while the Jaguars haven’t been this far in 19 years, the experience edge goes to the Patriots too. I predict a final score of New England 34, Jacksonville 16.