AFC Championship Odds to Win the 2024 Title: Chiefs vs Ravens

Updated Odds to Win the AFC Championship – Entering Divisional Round Games

For the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career with the Kansas City Chiefs, the offense looks ragged. Instead of sitting at or near the top of the league the meaningful offensive categories, the Chiefs were just 15th in scoring. They did lead the league in dropped passes, with 38. They were second in offensive penalties – and ninth in turnovers. Mahomes did rise to the occasion on a frozen night against Miami in the wild-card round, throwing for 262 yards, surviving a cracked helmet, and hurling a touchdown pass in the process. However, his usual comeback magic did not work in 2023. The Chiefs had five one-score losses, but they could have tied or gone into the lead with late drives in four of those – and they failed each time. Mahomes’ yards per attempt (7.0), passing yardage per contest (261) and QBR (63) were all career lows. His only career high came in interceptions (14), although it’s worth noting that two of those clanked off the hands of Kadarius Toney. Can the Chiefs really claw their way to another Super Bowl? Check out the updated AFC Championship odds of each of the four remaining teams to get to Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII.

The game between Kansas City and Buffalo might turn out to be the best game left on the postseason schedule. The Chiefs are known for offense, but the last two years, the story has been their defense, as coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has assembled a unit that can carry out his scheme that involves an aggressive pass rush and effective coverage in the secondary. Patrick Mahomes has moved on from Kadarius Toney, trusting Rashee Rice to catch pass after pass, while Travis Kelce has turned back the clock the last two weeks. Running back Isiah Pacheco adds needed balance on offense to keep some of the pressure off Mahomes.

Josh Allen’s 52-yard touchdown run may have been the signature moment in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The play featured him on a designed run, and once he burst through that first hole, the sight of him pulling away from the Pittsburgh secondary had to be disheartening to the Steelers’ bench. Adding James Cook’s contributions at tailback meant more variety for the Bills’ offense, which now keeps opposing defenses from loading up on Allen. But can Allen overcome his own tendencies to turn the ball over at the worst time? He will have to if the Bills are going to beat the Chiefs, even at home.

Baltimore has the top seed in the AFC, but they haven’t matched the Bills and the Chiefs in recent years in the postseason, faltering at key moments in playoff games. Lamar Jackson is looking as solid at this time of year as ever, though, and the team finished December with some convincing wins. The pass rush has Jadeveon Clowney, who will look to feast on his former team when Houston comes to town.

Houston has undergone an amazing turnaround just in December, as C.J. Stroud has shown he has graduated from the learning curve for NFL quarterbacks. The Ravens have all the experience – but the Texans have nothing to lose and the energy of youth. Can they send the Ravens home early like they did Cleveland last week? They have the offense to pull it off.

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Updated Odds to Win the AFC Championship – Entering Wild Card Games

The end of the 2023 NFL regular season marks the beginning of a yearly process – firing head coaches. Washington parted ways with Ron Rivera, and the Falcons showed Arthur Smith the gate. In the AFC, the biggest name to get his walking papers so far has been Tennessee Titans coach Mike Vrabel, who was let go after six seasons and posting a combined 54-45 record. The Titans went to the playoffs in three of the first four seasons that Vrabel was at the helm, but the last two seasons have been marked by a .382 winning percentage, an offense putting up just 17.7 points per game, and a decline in the performance of both tailback Derrick Henry and quarterback Ryan Tannehill. It looks like the Titans will become the latest rebuild in the AFC; in the meantime, with the wild-card playoff games coming up this weekend, let’s look at the AFC Championship odds for each of the seven teams on this side of the bracket to advance to Super Bowl LVIII.

The Baltimore Ravens are a more balanced team than they were four years ago, when Lamar Jackson won his first MVP award. They have more options than just Jackson to pound the ball on the ground, and Jackson has some quality targets when he drops back to pass. The linebackers and defensive backs can just fly, and the pass rush has quality at both edges. You can run the ball on the Ravens, but if they get you in second- or third-and-long, your offense is in trouble.

The Buffalo Bills already have a w in at Arrowhead Stadium this year, and they are one of the hottest teams in football, having turned a 6-6 start into an 11-6 finish. The problem that the Bills face is ball security. Josh Allen has shown that he can move the ball up and down the field at will, but his two end-zone interceptions and his fumble in Miami territory last week kept the game much closer than it should have been. The Bills’ defense is also inconsistent. This team has the highest ceiling in the AFC – but also the biggest probability of backbreaking blunders.

The Kansas City Chiefs still have a solid defense, but their offense has fallen off significantly. For much of this season, the Chiefs have led the league in dropped passes, and it seems like every other ball that Patrick Mahomes throws to Kadarius Toney clanks off his hands. The emergence of Rashee Rice and Justin Watson suggests that the team is ready to transition past Toney and Travis Kelce when the time is right, but the offense is still in a funk going into the postseason. However, Mahomes has shown he can deliver in the postseason, and the Chiefs still have a stout defense.

The Cleveland Browns are the most dangerous wild-card team from either conference. Joe Flacco has come alive and is moving the offense up and down the field, thanks to Amari Cooper and David Njoku putting up big receiving numbers. That is allowing the run game to flourish despite injuries on the O-line. The Browns are a defense-first team, but can they get big stops on the road?

The Miami Dolphins will get Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle back for the playoffs, which will give them more offensive production in Kansas City. That game is set to take place in freezing temperatures, which is traditionally where warm-weather and domed teams see their postseason dreams come to an end. Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, but how will he do in a cold, windy stadium?

The Houston Texans host Cleveland in the wild-card round thanks to the Texans’ AFC South title. C.J. Stroud wasn’t on the field when the Browns blew out the Texans in Week 16, but he is back. How consistently can the Texans’ defense stop the Browns in both the passing and the running game, though?

The Pittsburgh Steelers did well to fight their way into the postseason despite needing three different starting quarterbacks this season. The defense has also had to fight through some key injuries and will not have T.J. Watt for the wild-card game. Mason Rudolph is a high-ceiling quarterback who has the potential to throw five touchdown passes…or five interceptions.

NFL Odds to Win the 2023-2024 AFC Championship in the Week 18

The New York Jets made an interesting roster move on Tuesday, waiving tailback Dalvin Cook with one game left in the season. The four-time Pro Bowler arrived at this solution mutually with the team and will give Cook the chance to sign on with a team heading to the playoffs. As part of the move, he forfeited any remaining guarantees from his deal with the Jets. His playing time hit zero on Thursday, when he dressed against Cleveland but didn’t see the field for a single play in the 37-20 loss to Cleveland. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. Let’s look at the updated AFC Championship odds for each team to get to the Super Bowl as well as some thoughts about the top contenders.

The Baltimore Ravens are favorites for a reason. They haven’t lost since November 12, when they imploded in a 33-31 home loss to Cleveland. Their last three wins have come in Jacksonville, over a Jaguars team that at that time had visions of moving into the top spot in the AFC standings with a win, in San Francisco by 14, and at home against Miami – in 56-19 fashion. That game turned in a hurry, as Miami was up, 10-7, with 1:44 left in the first quarter, and the Ravens were about to have to punt. When the switch flips, it flips emphatically.

The Cleveland Browns are an intriguing value pick. Joe Flacco continues to look better with each passing week, and his crew of wide receivers is getting healthy. Do opposing defensive coordinators have what they need to start game planning more effectively for him? Can the defense keep crushing opposing offenses to the point where the Browns can outscore them? This is a dangerous team, one that can take advantage of inconsistencies elsewhere on the AFC Championship side of the bracket.

The Kansas City Chiefs came back to beat Cincinnati at home last week, but it’s important to remember that the Bengals still don’t have Joe Burrow at quarterback. They turned a 17-13 deficit into a 25-19 win, and while there were some important moments, this is still a wobbly 10-6 team. We didn’t see key passes clanking off Kadarius Toney’s hands because Patrick Mahomes seems to have turned his trust more toward Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce had a couple of crucial drops, but Justin Watson is emerging as another weapon at tight end. It will be hard to imagine the Chiefs getting this many chances to come back in a playoff game, though.

The Miami Dolphins have both won and lost curious blowouts this season. They steamrolled the Denver Broncos, 70-20, early in the season, and then they turned around and lost to the Ravens, 56-19, in a game that they led by three near the end of the first quarter. Their health is in question after Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert have gone down with key injuries at different points. They play Buffalo in Week 18 for the AFC East title and the right to host a home game in the wild-card round. Can they solve their defensive issues in time?

The Buffalo Bills barely escaped their Week 17 date with New England, 27-21. That means that they followed up their humiliation of the Dallas Cowboys by almost losing to a pair of dreadful teams, as they had to roar back from a deficit to beat the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Week 16. If they lose to Miami on Sunday, they could fall out of the playoffs altogether. You never know what you’re going to get from this team from one week to the next, but you could say that about just about every team on this list except for the Ravens at this point.