In this Round, it’s important to consider the AFC Championship Odds. The Kansas City Chiefs have won the last two Super Bowls and have an excellent chance to make it three in a row as they prepare to host the AFC Championship.
However, the NFC still leads in total Super Bowl wins – 29 to 28. If the Chiefs achieve a threepeat, they would be the first in the Super Bowl era and the first in NFL history since the Packers’ three consecutive championships before the AFL, including the initial Super Bowls I and II.
Super Bowl LIX’s AFC representative will be the Bills or Chiefs; if the Bills defeat the Chiefs, it will signify a three-game playoff losing streak against them.
Let’s take a closer look at the AFC side of the NFL playoff bracket as you consider your sports betting for the upcoming weeks.
AFC Championship Odds: Who’s the favorite to Win the Super Bowl LIX?
- Philadelphia Eagles +154
- Kansas City Chiefs +179
- Buffalo Bills +212
- Washington Commanders +680
Betting Implications of an AFC Win
NFL Futures Winning Conference: AFC -133 / NFC +104
Whether Buffalo or Kansas City wins the AFC Championship, this is the team that will likely be favored to win Super Bowl LIX. The NFC team will either be the Washington Commanders or the Philadelphia Eagles.
What about the NFC?
While the Commanders have pulled off a shocking run, beating the Buccaneers and the Lions on the road to get to the NFC title game, when they run into a team with an elite defense, they will find it much harder to get one of those amazing late victories.
In Week 18, they scored on a final drive against a struggling Dallas team. Then, against Tampa Bay, a late fumble by Baker Mayfield provided a critical opportunity for a touchdown in Buccaneers’ territory.
Against the Lions
In Detroit, they took advantage of a Lions defense with many injured players, narrowly defeating New Orleans by one and needing overtime to beat a rookie-led Atlanta in Week 17.
So yes, they shredded Detroit last week, but there are still a lot of questions for this Washington team, particularly on defense.
Philadelphia finished the season 14-3, but they have some questions. Jalen Hurts (knee) is still questionable after the Eagles stopped the Rams in the snow on Sunday.
Saquon Barkley
Barkley is an elite tailback who can pound the ball, but if the Eagles have to go with Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee at quarterback, Washington should be able to roll to a win. Even if the Eagles win, Hurts’ health would be a question.
Despite the stout defense that the Eagles have played this season, they would likely enter as an underdog for the Super Bowl.
^Which AFC Team Will Win?
Buffalo Bills
The Bills will win because they’ve evolved from the 2020 team that lost 38-24 in the AFC Championship to gain experience under postseason pressure. Their past disappointments fuel their performance, backed by five consecutive AFC East titles. While they benefited from the decline of the Patriots, the Jets’ rebuilding efforts, and the Dolphins’ defensive struggles, the Bills have established themselves by playing consistently at a high level, showcasing their growth and resilience in the league.
Iced out on Sunday night. 🥶#BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ywzYxeQlL0
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 23, 2025
Sean McDermott
Bills’ head coach McDermott has seven playoff wins but is 0-3 against Reid. The Chiefs are on an eight-game playoff winning streak and are heading to their seventh straight AFC Championship game. Tight end Dawson Knox notes there’s something unique about this team, despite knowing their work isn’t finished. Luck played a role, too, with Ravens’ Mark Andrews dropping a crucial pass that could have tied their game.
The Offensive
Buffalo’s offense has been run-focused this season, accumulating 357 rushing yards and four touchdowns in their two playoff victories. As they face the Chiefs—who previously allowed 149 rushing yards in a playoff win against Houston—the Bills will likely emphasize their ground game again. However, if the Chiefs contain this attack as they did in their November matchup, the Bills can still advance with effective passing. In that game, Buffalo triumphed 30-21, led by Josh Allen’s performance of 27 completions for 262 yards, including a critical 26-yard touchdown scramble. Allen will need to replicate such excellence.
Kansas City Chiefs
They believe they’ll win by stopping the Bills on third downs, a crucial area where Kansas City has struggled, allowing a 44% conversion rate, the league’s fourth worst. In their previous matchup, they successfully contained James Cook, and with Ray Davis sidelined for the Bills, they may have the advantage. However, Buffalo’s diverse offense can spread the field with multiple receivers capable of executing deep, short, and medium-range passes effectively.
The city is all dressed up for our playoff run ♥️ pic.twitter.com/6uOKibyKMc
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 22, 2025
Top Players
The Bills permit a 44% third-down conversion rate, suggesting the Chiefs can extend drives effectively. In their recent game against Houston, Patrick Mahomes managed only 177 passing yards, with an additional 50 rushing yards. Nonetheless, the Chiefs excelled in defense, special teams, and red zone performance. Travis Kelce shone with seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs are expected to be more aggressive against the Bills, utilizing Xavier Worthy’s speed and the strength of Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco.
Kansas are the top seed and have home field advantage, but they still look like underdogs. Last year they were the second seed and won the AFC Championship. This year, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Detroit are getting more media attention than the defending champs.
^AFC Championship Odds provided by Xbet
AFC Championship Odds: Best Wins for AFC Teams
Super Bowl III: New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7
The AFC’s best win may have occurred before the AFC existed. The first four Super Bowls pitted NFL and AFL champions against each other, with the Packers winning the first two. There was talk that the AFL might disappear due to the lack of parity. In Super Bowl III, the Colts were favored.
Jets quarterback Joe Namath guaranteed victory, leading his team to a 16-7 win. This promise earned him broadcasting and advertising opportunities, as well as a place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, despite his ordinary career stats. They haven’t returned to the Super Bowl since.
^Pittsburgh Steelers 35, Dallas Cowboys 31: Super Bowl XIII
The confrontations between the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowls X and XIII were very close. In XIII, the offenses excelled, with quarterbacks Terry Bradshaw and Roger Staubach standing out with a decisive strip-sack.
There was a dreadful pass interference call against Dallas’ Benny Barnes that gave the Steelers a huge gain. There was a huge drop by Dallas tight end Jackie Smith in the end zone…a pass that literally hit him in the stomach, between his hands, and a drive that ended in a field goal instead of a touchdown. One of the best matchups was part of Pittsburgh’s dominant run of four Super Bowl wins in six seasons.
^Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24
The Seattle Seahawks were rolling down the field, preparing to score the touchdown that would give them back-to-back world championships. Seahawks tailback Marshawn Lynch was simply devouring the worn-out Patriots defense with gain after gain.
Darrell Bevell, Seattle’s OC, opted for a quick slant instead of a run at the goal line. Patriots’ Malcolm Butler intercepted the pass, securing a shocking win for New England. This pivotal moment altered the paths of both the Seahawks and Patriots.
^New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28: Super Bowl LI
This was the first Super Bowl that went to overtime, and it also featured an immense comeback. The Patriots were down 28-3 late in the third quarter, but they came all the way back to win in the extra time.
Dan Quinn’s team faltered defensively and offensively, becoming overly conservative to counter the Patriots’ comeback. Tom Brady gained confidence with each score, while Atlanta’s Matt Ryan grew increasingly hesitant as the game progressed.
^Super Bowl XIV: Pittsburgh Steelers 31, Los Angeles Rams 19
The Steel Curtain made it four titles in six seasons with this win – against a Rams team that was the first wild-card team from either conference to get to the Super Bowl.
The Rams jumped out early, thanks to a halfback option pass from Lawrence McCutcheon – who famously licked the “stickum” off his hand so he could throw the ball more easily – but they had no answer for the Steelers’ offense in the second half.
^Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23: Super Bowl XLIII
It looked like the Arizona Cardinals were finally going to end one of the longest title droughts in sports history. The team actually started operations back in 1920, but they only won two NFL titles, in 1925 and 1947, when they were the Chicago Cardinals.
They are the oldest NFL franchise without a Super Bowl title – and they almost got one here. They led the Steelers late before Ben Roethlisberger found Santonio Holmes for a brilliant catch in the back corner of the end zone.
^Championship Sunday is set! #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/cKl0mz3aCX
— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2025
Super Bowl LIX Betting Odds For Today
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