The AFC East is a division with a proud history. Both of the perfect regular season records since the league went to a schedule of 14 or more games, back in 1961, have been posted by teams in the AFC East. Miami did it in 1972, who completed a perfect 17-0 season with a Super Bowl win, and then New England did it in 2007, winning 18 in a row before losing in a shocking upset in Super Bowl XLII. Of the 54 Super Bowls, the AFC East has represented the conference in 20 of them, and has won nine titles (six by the New England Patriots). Buffalo has appeared in four Super Bowls — four in a row, in fact — but has lost all of them. The Dolphins have gone 2-3 in Super Bowls, while the Jets have gone 1-0, with that epic win in Super Bowl III sending Joe Namath to the Hall of Fame, and a lifetime of free drinks. New England has dominated the division in recent years, winning every title since 2008 and 17 of the last 19 titles overall. With Tom Brady heading to Tampa Bay, though, the division is in rare flux. Let’s take a look at the NFL betting odds the four teams have of winning the AFC East this year along with some thoughts about each team after the 2020 draft.
AFC East Divisional Odds After the 2020 Draft
- New England Patriots +120
- Buffalo Bills +130
- New York Jets +750
- Miami Dolphins +900
How are the New England Patriots still the favorites? They have added Brian Hoyer at quarterback, and they have cut Cody Kessler. That means that, at least for now, Jarrett Stidham of Auburn is the presumptive starter. Andy Dalton didn’t sign with New England; instead, he inked a one-year deal to go to Dallas and back up Dak Prescott (assuming the Cowboys don’t have an ugly holdout at that position). According to a report from NESN, one AFC scout has indicated that the Patriots could be planning to tank for Trevor Lawrence. The hashtag #TankForTrevor has gained popularity, referring to the Clemson quarterback who should be a high draft choice next year.
So the answer to this question is that the Patriots are the favorites because of their history. No one else has been able to take them down. If you saw how well Bill Belichick was able to do the year Tom Brady was out with an ACL, getting Matt Cassel in position to win some games, then you get an idea that the Patriots could win some games. But can they really beat out Buffalo?
Speaking of Buffalo, Josh Allen is poised to take another big step in his third year running the Buffalo offense. It was surprising that Houston was able to shut down Buffalo in the wild-card playoff game last year, but Allen has more targets this year. Gabriel Davis and Isaiah Hodgins are quality — and Stefon Diggs, who came via trade, is elite. John Brown, all of a sudden, isn’t Allen’s only dangerous target. Tailback Zack Moss should be able to pound the ball in those short-yardage situations that put Allen at risk last year. Buffalo is my pick to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995.
The New York Jets added a left tackle, Mekhi Becton, with their first draft pick, to protect Sam Darnold’s back — and he needed a blindside protector. The offensive line could have as many as four new starters this season. Wide receiver Denzel Mims comes in to give Darnold another target down the field. Darnold didn’t have nearly as much talent around him as far as playmaking goes as he does going into 2020.
The Miami Dolphins have an intriguing situation at quarterback. They drafted Tua Tagovailoa from Alabama, and they still have Ryan Fitzpatrick, now as the likely mentor/backup, but he could come on and lead the team if Tua struggles. Remember, Fitzpatrick led Miami to a last-minute rally at New England in Week 17 last year, so the Dolphins can sneak up on teams.
