Eight teams remain in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy, which will be awarded to the winner of Super Bowl LVII on February 12. In the NFC divisional round, three teams from the East remain, but only one or two will make the NFC Championship, as the Giants visit Philadelphia and Dallas visits San Francisco. In the AFC divisional round, the Cincinnati Bengals look to get to their second straight Super Bowl, but they have to win in Buffalo first, and the Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the hopes of making it to five straight AFC Championships. We have your straight up NFL betting pick for each of the four matchups.
NFL News: Divisional Round SU Picks
→ Saturday, January 21
Jacksonville Jaguars (+360) at Kansas City Chiefs (-480) (O/U 53) (4:30 pm ET, NBC)
The Kansas City Chiefs lost only three games this season, by a combined ten points. The first loss was the most disappointing, coming against an Indianapolis Colts team that would implode later on, but the other two (at home against Buffalo and at Cincinnati) came against the other top contenders in the AFC. The Chiefs bring, once again, an electric offense, despite the loss of Tyreek Hill in the off-season. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marques Valdes-Scantling have done a great job running routes, and Travis Kelce is having another huge season from the tight end position. Isaac Pacheco has given the Chiefs rejuvenation in the running game, so it’s no surprise that they lead the league in scoring.
As was the case when the Chiefs lost to New England in the AFC Championship and when they lost to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl, though, the defense is an issue, ranking just 16th in points permitted per game. The pass defense tends to give up just too much for the Chiefs to pull away and keep big leads, and that turned into a problem against Buffalo and Cincinnati. Jacksonville comes in with nothing to lose, so I expect them to swing from the fences on both sides of the ball. Kansas City should have too much offense to lose, but covering a two-score spread is too much. Kansas City to win.
N.Y. Giants (+285) at Philadelphia Eagles (-365( (O/U 48) (8:15 pm ET, FOX)
Over the course of the season, both of these defenses have proven to be susceptible to the run. The Giants’ miraculous revival under Brian Daboll has had a lot to do with coaching, but it has also had a lot to do with Saquon Barkley’s recovery. Most running backs who lose two years to catastrophic injury don’t come back and run at an elite level, but Barkley has, and the Giants have prospered as a result. Daniel Jones, in his contract year, has finally shed the turnover bug that plagued him for the first three seasons, and he has become a threat with his arm to match his toughness and speed that he has on the ground. Given the Eagles’ difficulties stopping the run, the Giants could make this a long day for the Eagle defense.
The Eagles, of course, have the ability to do the same to the Giants. During the regular season, Philadelphia beat New York twice, scoring a combined 70 points in both wins – and 48 in the game in which the Giants played their starters the whole game. Jalen Hurts suffered a shoulder injury in Week 15, though, and he didn’t look 100% when he returned for Week 18, but he has had the bye week to rest. Will that be enough? Miles Sanders should be able to pound the ball on the ground against the Giants, who give up a lot in the running game. Philadelphia to win.
→ Sunday, January 22
Cincinnati Bengals (+196) at Buffalo Bills (-240) (O/U 48) (3:00 pm ET, CBS)
The Bengals finished the season with an eight-game winning streak that could have been nine, as they were leading Buffalo at home in Week 17 when Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest brought an early end to the game, which ended up being suspended. The Bengals only faced three playoff teams in that stretch, though – although their home win over Kansas City was a signature victory. They also beat Tampa Bay on the road, in a game that saw Tom Brady implode and turn the ball over four times in the second half, and they beat Baltimore twice in a row, once in Week 18 and again in the wild card round (beating a backup quarterback in both situations).
Buffalo has won seven in a row (a streak that could have reached eight), but they barely survived Miami in the wild card round. The Bills went up 17-0 in the early going, but then they got careless with the ball, giving the Dolphins some short fields before winning, 34-31. They cannot afford the same kinds of mistakes with the Bengals coming to town, and the close calls the Bills had with Cleveland, the Jets and Miami (twice) down the stretch do not bode well. Bengals to win.
Dallas Cowboys (+165) at San Francisco 49ers (-195) (O/U 46.5) (6:30 pm ET, FOX)
The Dallas defense delivered in an emphatic win over Tampa Bay, surprising many (including this writer) who thought the pressure would cause the Cowboys to fold…again. The Cowboys shut down the Tampa Bay running game and made Tom Brady run for his life all night long, forcing him into many bad passes, including his first red zone interception in a playoff game in this decade. The Buccaneers, though, finished 8-9 for a reason, and their offense had struggled against just about everybody.
The 49ers have not lost since October 23, when the Chiefs came to town and dealt them a 44-23 beating. On October 21, they had acquired Christian McCaffrey via trade from the Carolina Panthers, and that game was the only one they lost with him on the roster. Even when Jimmy Garoppolo became the second 49ers quarterback to go down for the season, in stepped Brock Purdy, and the team keeps winning. It helps that the defense is led by Nick Bosa and is solid on all three levels. Can the Cowboys stop a team that can run the ball well behind a strong offensive line and that has a quarterback who, to this point, hasn’t made bad decisions under pressure? Can they move the ball against a team with an elite pass rush? San Francisco to win.
NFL Betting Odds
Love betting NFL football? | Xbet Sportsbook offers up to date NFL lines
