Updated AFC Playoff Picture for the 2023/24 Season

Updated AFC Playoff Picture for the 2023/24 Season

Written by on December 5, 2023

The Jacksonville Jaguars entered their Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals just a win away from moving into the top playoff seed in the AFC. The Kansas City Chiefs had coughed up a bad loss to Green Bay on Sunday night, dropping to 8-4, and the Jaguars have a better conference record than the other 9-3 teams, Baltimore and Miami. The Bengals came in with a backup quarterback in Jake Browning, but the Washington Huskies product became the first undrafted quarterback ever to post a completion rate of above 85%, going 32 of 35 – with two drops – and more than 325 passing yards in a single game, and the Jaguars lost Trevor Lawrence to an injury that looked ugly but may only be an ankle sprain, depending on test results. Either way, the Bengals’ playoff hopes remain alive today. Let’s take a look at this week’s games and how they impacted the AFC playoff picture so you can get a better idea of how to plan your NFL betting on futures and this coming weekend’s games.

 

AFC Playoff Picture Analysis: Who’s Out? Who’s In? | Current Playoff Standings

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)6. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)8. Houston Texans (7-5)
  • Three teams at 6-6: Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver
  • Two teams at 5-7: L.A. Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
  • Two teams at 4-8: N.Y. Jets, Tennessee Titans

This week, there are several AFC matchups that could throw things into even more chaos: Kansas City-Buffalo, Jacksonville-Cleveland, and Indianapolis-Cincinnati.

The Bills spent November finding ridiculous ways to lose games. They went 1-3 in the month, losing those three games by a combined 11 points, including an overtime loss in Philadelphia on November 26. They also routed the Jets by 26. We have no idea what to expect coming out of the bye; Sean McDermott has been able to coach the Bills to excellence in the past, but Josh Allen has to figure out ways to keep leading offensive drives without committing backbreaking turnovers. It’s hard to imagine them missing the playoffs, but it was also hard to imagine them blowing a very winnable game in New England and a very winnable game against Denver – and then pushing Philadelphia to the brink. After they play the Chiefs on the road, they finish with Dallas, the Chargers, New England at home, and a trip to Miami. Could they go on a tear and win out? Yes. Could they go 0-5? Yes. I’m not putting a lot of money on them.

The Bengals look solid offensively after dropping 34 on Jacksonville. A key player in that game was rookie tailback Chase Brown, who unleashed a 31-yard run that was the Bengals’ longest run of the season. The team has been looking for a back to make big plays as Joe Mixon seems to be wearing down, and Brown may just be the guy. It took Mixon 10 carries to get over 31 yards in Monday’s game.

What about Denver? They had a terrific five-game winning streak come to an end in Houston. The Sean Payton era hasn’t yet proven to be about finishing games, even though the Russell Wilson-Courtland Sutton hookup at the end of contests could continue to grow. Of the teams who are on the outside looking in, the only one I feel confident makes the playoffs is the Bengals, as I don’t see Cleveland, Indianapolis, Houston and Pittsburgh all going on runs.

Oh, and are the Dolphins for real as a potential 1-seed? They dropped 45 on Washington this past weekend. In seven of their nine wins, they’ve scored at least 31 points. I’m still not sure how the Bills beat them by 28 up in New York, but I see the Dolphins reversing that outcome in Week 18. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle aren’t dropping passes like Kadarius Toney and the rest of the Chiefs are doing to Patrick Mahomes, and the Dolphins’ running game isn’t an occasional novelty, like Isiah Pacheco’s periodic flashes of passionate slashing through defenses are.

 

2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds

Odds to Win 2024 AFC Championship
AFC Team Odds
Kansas City Chiefs +222
Baltimore Ravens +265
Miami Dolphins +290
Jacksonville Jaguars +1000
Houston Texans +1750
Buffalo Bills +1800
Cleveland Browns +3100
Pittsburgh Steelers +3400
Indianapolis Colts +3400
Denver Broncos +5200
Los Angeles Chargers +7000
Cincinnati Bengals +8500
Las Vegas Raiders +22000
New York Jets +38000
Tennessee Titans +46000
New England Patriots +90000
AFC Lines to Win
 
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AFC Playoff Picture

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