It’s only been two seasons since the Jacksonville Jaguars made it all the way to the AFC Championship and led the New England Patriots on the road to start the fourth quarter…only to see that lead vanish. Since then, the Jaguars have gotten rid of quarterback Blaine Gabbert (and his successor, Nick Foles), only to hand the keys to Gardner Minshew, at least for now, plummeting down the NFL odds lists. The rest of the AFC South is difficult to handicap. The Tennessee Titans beat New England and Baltimore on the road last year to make it to Kansas City for the AFC Championship, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill got a huge contract extension as a reward. Tailback Derrick Henry will be back as well. But were they just a flash in the pan? The Indianapolis Colts have changed quarterbacks, going from Jacoby Brissett to longtime Charger Philip Rivers, but does that make them favorites, given how long it’s been since Rivers has appeared in a playoff game? Then there’s Houston, who has to do something at general manager, as Bill O’Brien has made another postseason full of poor decisions. We have the AFC South betting odds for each of the four teams to win the division as well as thoughts on each contender.
NFL Betting: AFC South Divisional Odds After the 2020 Draft
- Indianapolis Colts +135
- Tennessee Titans +165
- Houston Texans +300
- Jacksonville Jaguars +2000
The Indianapolis Colts are basically all-in for this year, as Rivers is only on a one-year deal. They didn’t worry about a young understudy for Rivers in the draft, instead loading up on offensive pieces. They got wideout Michael Pittman Jr and tailback Jonathan Taylor with their first two picks and added wideout Dezmon Patmon later on. The first two picks should contribute from Week 1, as Pittman is the possession receiver who will complement the work of Parris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton. Taylor joins Marlon Mack in the Colts’ backfield; Mack had over 1,000 rushing yards in 2019 and will give the Colts’ offense balance. However, Rivers had similar balance with the Chargers. It will be interesting to see whether Rivers gets back to his playoff form from over a decade ago or is still throwing back-breaking picks.
The Tennessee Titans seem like the favorite to me, and there’s not a lot of difference in value between them and the Colts. The Titans bolstered their defense in the draft, but they still have plenty of speed on the offensive side of the ball. They have Kalif Raymond as a burner threat, although Ryan Tannehill is more of a middle-distance passer. Raymond did have two touchdown catches of 40 or more yards last year, including one in the postseason. He also returned punts. Can the Titans capture lightning in a bottle twice, or were they just really that good?
The Houston Texans are likely to have an irritated quarterback in Deshaun Watson as his best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, left town without the Texans getting much of similar value in return. The team did bring in Brandin Cooks from the Rams and Randall Cobb from the Cowboys, but while both of those players have done well in the league, neither is the All-Pro that Hopkins is. The team did not address their offensive line needs in the draft, largely because of Bill O’Brien’s belief that the lack of an in-person offseason means that rookies would have a harder time contributing. Will that pay off? We’ll see.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have not fared well in the last two seasons. They did add K’Lavon Chaisson to give Josh Allen some help on the pass rush. However, the failure to bring in an upgrade at quarterback over Minshew — and their decision to let Foles go — should have their fans scratching their heads. It’s definitely been a fast fall from AFC South champions and AFC finalists to the basement of the conference, now that Cincinnati has gotten hope from the signing of Joe Burrow.
